Chamisal, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

197
FXUS65 KABQ 171905
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and brief
  heavy downpours will favor southern and eastern parts of New
  Mexico this afternoon and evening, southern New Mexico Thursday,
  and western and central New Mexico Friday.
- Scattered severe thunderstorms will develop across northeast and
  far east central New Mexico late this afternoon lasting through
  the evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy
  rainfall will be the main hazards.
- There will be a minor to moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening,
  particularly over the Ruidoso area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
An upper low continues to spin over western South Dakota and
Nebraska with embedded shortwaves moving across the central Rockies
at the southern periphery of the upper low circulation. At the
surface, a backdoor front has entered far northeast NM, including
Raton and Clayton. For this afternoon and evening, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will once again favor southern and eastern
areas where PWATS will range from around 0.7 to 1.1 inches.
Northwest flow will keep the northwest and north central areas of
the state mostly dry with PWATS around 0.3 to 0.5 inches. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will initially be focused across the southern
high terrain early this afternoon where the highest moisture
resides. Come the mid to late afternoon more mature storm
development will occur along and east of the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and Sandia and Manzano Mountains The backdoor front across
far northeast NM along with a upper level jet at the base of a
subtle shortwave moving across Colorado will help to increase bulk
shear values to 35 to 45 kts across the northeast plains helping to
allow storms to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts from wet microbursts will be the main threats. Across far
northern Union County along the CO border which will be right along
the backdoor front and closest to the strengthening shortwave trough
axis, bulk shear values will be up to 50 kts allowing for the
development of supercellular thunderstorms. Effective SRH values of
around 100 m^2/s^2 help to support a low risk (2%) for a tornado
across this part of the county this evening. Storms across a
majority of southern and eastern NM will taper off at around sunset
with the backdoor front and upper level shortwave keeping storms
across far northeast NM going until around midnight. The storms
across eastern CO, far northeast NM, western KS and the OK and TX
panhandles will help push the backdoor front south and west through
the rest of eastern NM early Thursday morning. Low clouds are
expected to develop across the northeast plains around sunrise
Thursday in the wake of the backdoor front.
For Thursday, the state will be between the departing upper low
across the northern Great Plains and a negatively tilted upper ridge
axis stretching from the AZ/NM border to the Pacific NW. The low
clouds across northeast NM during the morning hours along with
subsidence in the wake of this evening`s and tonight`s shortwave
will help to mostly prevent shower and thunderstorm activity across
this part of the state. Dry northwest flow will remain across
northwest and north central NM with PWATS ranging from around from
0.25 to 0.5 inches. Higher moisture will be confined to the southern
part of the forecast area with PWATS around 0.8 to 1 inch. As a
result, shower and thunderstorm coverage on Thursday will be focused
across this area. Storms across the southwest mountains will be
moving slowly and erratically due to being more under the upper ridge
axis. Now for the storms across the Sacramento Mountains, the
backdoor front across the east slopes will help to serve as a
focusing mechanism for shower and storm activity with the upslope
easterly flow potentially helping to pin storms across the Ruidoso
area burn scar. Mean HREF precip amounts for Thursday afternoon show
around 0.5 inches across the burn scars with max ensemble (worst
case) amounts of 1 to 1.25 inches between 12 to 3 PM. Given the
setup and guidance mentioned above, went ahead and issued a FLash
Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area from 12 PM to 6 PM Thursday. Storms
across southern NM taper off around sunset with the loss of daytime
heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Heading into Friday, the upper level ridge slides east and dampens
over the state. However, the remnant moisture and circulation of
what was Mario in the eastern Pacific early this week will sling
across the desert SW and New Mexico. The highest shower and
thunderstorm coverage on Friday will favor western and central NM as
PWATS surge up to 0.8 to 1 inch. Mid level cloud cover will be
associated with the moisture surge which could help to limit the
heavier rainfall rates in thunderstorms that develop. Storm motion
will also be a little more brisk to the east. These will be the
factors to watch in terms of determining the risk for flash flooding
on area burn scars.
A drying trend is expected for the weekend as an upper high over
northwest Mexico strengthens and builds northward into the desert
SW. The upper high will continue to build north encompassing much of
the intermountain West between an upper low along the Pacific coast
and a developing cutoff upper low over the central U.S. early next
week. PWATS drop to around 0.5 inch across much of the state helping
to basically shut down shower and thunderstorm chances. Higher
moisture could linger across far eastern NM due to backdoor fronts
moving south on the backside of the aforementioned cutoff upper low
over the central U.S.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
southern higher terrain early this afternoon with a general drift to
the east. Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor this area of
the state early this afternoon before more showers and storms
develop across northeast and east central NM mid to late this
afternoon. Storms across the northeast and east central plains will
be capable of becoming strong to severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Storms across southern areas taper off around sunset
with lingering activity across northeast NM through early tomorrow
morning. A backdoor front will surge south and west across eastern
NM Thursday morning with low clouds developing across northeast NM
in the wake of the front. These low clouds will likely impact KTCC
around sunrise through the end of the TAF period. Less uncertainty
on if these low clouds make it into KLVS, so included a tempo of
scattered low clouds at the site for now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
No critical fire weather conditions expected through the forecast
period. Showers and thunderstorms favoring southern and eastern
areas this afternoon and evening. Storms across northeast and far
east central New Mexico this afternoon and evening could become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Showers
and thunderstorms will favor the southern high terrain on Thursday
with cooler temperatures across northeast and east central NM behind
a backdoor front. Moisture from the remnants of what was Mario in
the eastern Pacific will move across the state on Friday with higher
shower and thunderstorm coverage favoring western and central New
Mexico. A building area of high pressure along with drier air helps
to shut down shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend into
early next week. Temperatures next week will be slightly above
average areawide.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  82  52  78 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  37  78  40  75 /   0   0   0  30
Cuba............................  46  78  49  70 /   0   0  10  50
Gallup..........................  44  82  49  74 /   0   0  10  60
El Morro........................  48  79  51  69 /   0   5  10  80
Grants..........................  46  82  50  73 /   0   5  10  80
Quemado.........................  50  79  52  69 /   0  20  20  80
Magdalena.......................  54  77  56  71 /  10  20  20  80
Datil...........................  49  76  51  67 /  10  20  20  90
Reserve.........................  50  84  51  74 /  10  30  30  80
Glenwood........................  55  87  56  79 /  20  40  30  70
Chama...........................  39  72  41  68 /   0   0   0  40
Los Alamos......................  51  74  53  73 /   0   5  10  50
Pecos...........................  46  74  49  71 /  10  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  43  73  45  71 /   5   5   5  30
Red River.......................  36  63  39  62 /  10  10   5  30
Angel Fire......................  33  67  34  69 /  10  10   5  30
Taos............................  42  76  45  75 /   5   0   5  30
Mora............................  41  70  44  71 /  10  20  10  40
Espanola........................  48  81  51  77 /   0   5  10  40
Santa Fe........................  50  76  52  72 /   5  10  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  48  79  51  75 /   5   5  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  82  60  78 /  10   5  10  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  84  59  79 /  10   5  10  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  86  59  81 /   5   5  10  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  84  58  79 /   5   5  10  50
Belen...........................  56  86  57  81 /  10  10  10  50
Bernalillo......................  55  86  57  81 /   5   5  10  50
Bosque Farms....................  55  85  56  80 /  10   5  10  50
Corrales........................  56  86  57  80 /   5   5  10  50
Los Lunas.......................  56  85  56  81 /  10   5  10  50
Placitas........................  55  81  56  79 /   5   5  10  50
Rio Rancho......................  56  84  58  79 /   5   5  10  50
Socorro.........................  60  87  61  80 /  10  10  20  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  78  52  74 /  10  10  10  60
Tijeras.........................  53  79  53  75 /  10  10  10  60
Edgewood........................  50  78  50  74 /  10  10  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  78  48  75 /  10  10  10  50
Clines Corners..................  49  72  50  72 /  20  20  10  40
Mountainair.....................  52  78  51  74 /  10  20  10  60
Gran Quivira....................  51  76  51  74 /  20  20  20  60
Carrizozo.......................  58  79  57  75 /  20  30  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  53  69  52  69 /  20  60  20  50
Capulin.........................  46  67  46  76 /  60  20  10  10
Raton...........................  46  71  47  77 /  40  20   5  10
Springer........................  48  75  48  80 /  30  20   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  46  70  48  74 /  20  20  10  40
Clayton.........................  53  71  52  80 /  70  20  10  10
Roy.............................  50  73  51  77 /  40  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  56  77  56  83 /  40  10  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  54  76  54  81 /  30  20  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  75  54  83 /  40  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  59  77  58  83 /  20  20  20  10
Portales........................  60  80  58  83 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  80  58  83 /  30  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  61  83  61  84 /  20  20  10  20
Picacho.........................  56  76  56  76 /  20  30  10  30
Elk.............................  53  75  53  74 /  20  40  10  40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch Thursday afternoon for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion