Absecon Highlands, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS61 KPHI 061935
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front
moves through the area Wednesday followed by a return of high
pressure to end the week. A deepening low pressure system could
affect the area next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure is sliding offshore this afternoon, with warm
southwesterly flow in place on the backside of the surface high.
This is resulting in a pleasant afternoon with lots of sun and
a few clouds with above normal tempertures in the 80s.
For tonight, cloud cover increases ahead of an approaching cold
front and an incoming shortwave. Should be relatively quiet
though, with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s. With a slight
gradient in place fostering a light southerly wind and some
cloud cover overhead, the threat for dense fog should be less
compared to this morning, where we had clear skies and light
winds with the surface high directly overhead. Cannot rule out
some patchy fog though, mainly south and east of the I-95
corridor and more sheltered spots where the wind could go calm.
Tuesday is setting up to be another mainly dry day. The cold
front gets closer but the bulk of the rain should hold off until
Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning. Cannot rule out a few late
afternoon showers in the far western areas of the Lehigh Valley
and southern Poconos, but it should just be a mild day as
southerly flow strengthens. With a stronger push of warm-air
advection, temperatures will get into the upper 70s/low 80s
again, even with increasing cloud cover.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night, enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow aloft will
be overspreading the region as a trough digs southeastward. The
trough will become increasingly positively tilted as the axis
passes north of the area by Wednesday evening. This overall mid
and upper pattern will lead to synoptic scale forcing for ascent
overspreading the region through around midday Wednesday. At
the surface, a cold front will approach the area from the
northwest and will likely be at least part of the way through
the area by daybreak Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, it will
have cleared the coast, with high pressure building into the
area through the remainder of the night.
Widespread showers are expected across the entire area during
the overnight hours Tuesday night. Models continue to indicate
modest elevated instability, so a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible. Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain will
continue into Wednesday, ending from west to east by Wednesday
evening with the passage of the cold front. In terms of rainfall
totals, the potential appears relatively consistent across the
entire area, with amounts generally in the 0.75-1" range. A few
isolated higher totals are possible. Given this is expected to
fall over a several hour span, and there remains a lack of a
signal in model guidance for deep covection, flooding issues
also appear unlikely.
Low temperatures on Tuesday night are expected to range from
the mid 50s across eastern PA and northern NJ, to the low 60s in
the urban corridor, across southern NJ, and the Delmarva. With
widespread rainfall followed by a cold front, high temperatures
on Wednesday look to mainly be in the upper 60s to near 70. The
Poconos could struggle to climb out of the low 60s. Much cooler
air will continue to filter into the region Wednesday night,
with low temperatures in the upper 30s likely in the Poconos and
the higher elevations of far northern NJ. Elsewhere,
temperatures will likely fall into the low- mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After the trough departs to the east, subtle mid-level ridging
will begin to build back in to the region Thursday. This will
continue into Friday, but beyond that the pattern becomes highly
uncertain with an upper-low moving southeast out of the Great
Lakes region and developing troughing over the Southeast. At the
surface, high pressure centered over southern portions of
Ontario and New England will remain in control Thursday,
shifting eastward through Friday across our area. There is
increasing model agreement on a surface low forming off the
Southeast coast and approaching the area this weekend, though
there is significant uncertainty regarding how this will play
out.
Thursday should be clear and cool across the area. Current
indications are that Thursday night could set up to be the
coolest night so far with good conditions for radiational
cooling combined with the airmass in place. Temperatures look to
warm up Friday through Monday, but will likely remain below
average through the end of the period.
Regarding the potential for a surface low to develop and bring
impacts to the region over the weekend and into early next week,
as stated, models continue to converge on some version of this
scenario. With that said, at this range, there remains a myriad
of different potential outcomes. For now, will follow the NBM,
which has PoPs generally in the 20-40% range beginning Saturday
and continuing into Monday. We will continue to monitor this
potential and clarity should increase over the coming days
regarding potential low development, placement, and impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Rest of Today (through 00z)...VFR with FEW/SCT cumulus between
FL035- 050. South/southwest winds 5-10 kt. High confidence.
Tonight...Primarily VFR. Small chance (10-15%) of fog
developing at all terminals between 09z-13z with a 10% chance of
fog being dense (VSBY < 1SM). Since probability is low, kept
out of the TAFs for now. Winds generally out of the
south/southwest 5 kt or less though some sites likely see
periods of calm or variable winds. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. Southwest winds around 10 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected at times in period of rain with a few embedded storms
possible. Conditions should begin to improve by Wednesday
afternoon from west to east.
Wednesday night through Friday night...VFR. No significant
weather.
Saturday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions cannot be ruled out
with the potential for rain.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Tuesday. Winds through
tonight will be out of the south around 10-20 kt with seas 2 to
3 feet.
For tomorrow, winds increase a bit, to around 15-20 kt with
gusts getting into the low 20s. Gusts could get near 25 kt at
times within the northern ocean zones. Considered an SCA but the
period of gusts getting near 25 kt will be brief. Seas 2 to 4
feet.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Thursday night...SCA conditions are
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front,
with southerly winds 20-25 kt. Condidence in occurrence is not
currently high enough for an SCA. By Wednesday night and
continuing through Thursday, SCA conditions are expected, with
winds 25-30 kt across all ocean zones and near 25 kt over the
Delaware Bay. While not currently anticipated, there is an
outside chance of Gale force winds for the ocean zones (around
20%) Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas could also increase to
above 5 feet, particularly on Thursday. SCA conditions could
linger into Thursday night before diminishing.
Friday through Friday night...Conditions are expected to be
below SCA criteria with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.
Saturday...Marine headlines could be needed depending on the
potential development and evolution of a surface low, which
could lead to increased winds and seas.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Cooper/Hoeflich
MARINE...Cooper/Hoeflich

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion