Aggieland, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

167
FXUS64 KHGX 151801
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
101 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Seasonably hot conditions expected through the forecast period.
- Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through
  midweek, then better chances of afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms increases somewhat late week for much of the
  region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
CONUS water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 MB RAP analysis shows
an amplified pattern featuring mid/upper ridges, troughs, and
lows. SE Texas remains under a ridge axis. But the portion of the
axis that resides over our region appears to be the weakest part
of the ridge, which is one of the reasons why we think the
atmosphere will allow for some isolated to widely scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours through
Wednesday. The coast and offshore areas could have a few showers
in the morning hours. Much like recent days, the atmosphere above
700 MB looks to be on the stable side. So convection should be of
the shallower variety. Most areas will likely remain dry. But a
few locations are likely to see a brief downpour and maybe a clap
of thunder through Wednesday.
Beyond Wednesday, the forecast becomes somewhat tricky. I feel
pretty confident about the pattern remaining amplified. Confidence
is also high that the current ridge (extending from Texas to the
Great Lakes) will break down as mid/upper troughing takes it
place. I am less sure about how far south the trough builds, the
amount of vorticity embedded in the flow aloft over Texas, and the
speed of the trough`s progression to the east or southeast. These
things matter when looking at late week PoPs. By Friday into the
weekend, we are showing 20-40 PoPs across the CWA. But this is
subject to change based off the complex flow pattern and subtle
yet important model variance from run to run.
As far as temperatures go, expect seasonably hot mid September
conditions with highs averaging in the low/mid 90s, perhaps
becoming a little less hot by week`s end. No fall for you! At
least not yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Isolated patchy fog should clear after sunrise. VFR conditions
prevailing during the daytime, with light SE/E winds. Isolated
showers could develop in the afternoon, though chances are too
low to warrant inclusion in the TAF. Variable winds overnight
with brief patchy fog possible again Tuesday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Persistent east to southeast flow will keep water levels above
normal, with levels reaching 3.0 to 3.5 feet above mean lower low
water during high tide cycles this week. This is below advisory
criteria. But the lowest coastal spots could experience minor
flooding at high tide. Gulf seas this week expected to average 2-4
feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through
Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage may increase towards
week`s end.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  93  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)  73  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  80  88 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion