Akron, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

548
FXUS63 KFSD 242321
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
621 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A persistent seasonally warm pattern will be in place through
  the middle of next week with very small chances for
  precipitation.
- Patchy fog possible late tonight into Thursday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A surface ridge of high pressure gradually settle south through
tomorrow allowing for light winds and clear skies. This will bring
the potential for fog once again late tonight into Thursday morning.
The latest model soundings and the 12z HREF data both suggest that
areas around the James River will see the best chance for fog with
visibilities below a mile. The remainder of the area looks to be
patchier. Otherwise a nice cool start to Thursday is expected with
lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
By Thursday afternoon this surface ridge is south of the area,
allowing a weak westerly wind to develop. Give the expected low
level thermal field very warm temperatures are expected with highs
well into the 80s. Give lighter winds could even see some super
adiabatic lapse rates near the surface adding another couple of
degrees on to high temperatures. Model soundings are very dry so
mostly sunny conditions are expected.
Surface winds strengthen and turn southerly ahead of a stronger wave
expected to move through southern Canada. This will once again bring
well above normal temperatures to the area with highs mostly in the
mid to upper 80s. A surface cool front will move into the area
Friday night, but with the wave so far north there will not be much
of a punch behind it. Lows on Friday night will be in the mid 50s
with highs backing off into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday.
With this weak surface high pressure building in on Saturday lighter
winds are expected so other than the bugs it will be a very pleasant
day.
As a trough digs into the west coast next week, upper level ridging
will build across the Plains. This will bring above normal
temperatures to the area through at least Wednesday, with lows
generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs in the 80s.
Precipitation chances will be low during this time, but there will
be a few waves that move northward through the Western High Plains
which might bring a few showers to central SD during this time. To
put it into perspective the GEFS 90th percentile for precipitation,
which means only 10 percentage of the models have more, is about
0.10-0.20" of rain. So still looking like fairly high confidence for
no significant rains the next 5-10 days. Some hints that late week
this upper level ridge may break down with late week chances for
rain and thunderstorms, so will monitor trends for this.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light northerly
winds persist early this evening but are expected to quickly go
light and variable as the sun sets. Fog remains on the table for
tonight but latest guidance has kept fog chances mainly confined to
the James River area. IFR to LIFR conditions remain possible in fog.
Will continue to monitor this potential. Otherwise, mainly clear
skies and light winds are expected for the day tomorrow.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Meyers

NWS FSD Office Area Forecast Discussion