Alberta, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

193
FXUS63 KMPX 101727
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread fog will continue through mid morning.
- Temperatures will warm through the end of the week peaking in
  the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
With a well saturated airmass after yesterday`s rain, clearing
skies, and calm winds we have an ideal radiational fog setup
this morning. As the clouds have cleared from west to east fog
has settled in and for most locations, it has been dense. Early
this morning we are still see good visibility across parts of
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin thanks to clouds that
were slow to clear. As the clouds continue to move out and
allow for more radiational cooling additional fog development is
expected. After sunrise warming temperatures will clear out the
fog by mid morning. Some low stratus could well persist into the
late morning.
With a ridge moving in today and then sitting on top of us
through at least Friday, we will enter into a dry period in the
forecast. As we move into the weekend there is good agreement
in the trough out over the Canadian Rockies to western CONUS.
Where there is more spread, is the track of the upper low over
the eastern North American continent. Depending on the track of
this eastern low and how far south it tracks, we could enter
into a blocking pattern that would keep us dry through the
weekend. Taking an ensemble approach this ridge with warm and
dry conditions lasts through Friday consistently in the global
ensemble systems. It is over the weekend that we start to see
more variability with this ridge breaking down in some members and
allowing for some rain chances to move in. Overall still low
confidence in any rain occurring as there are few members
showing rain and those that do not having a strong signal. It is
looking ahead to early next week that there is more of a signal
for rain when the trough to our west finally starts to track
east towards us.
In summary little to no rain chance with a warming trend through
the weekend. Rain chances look to increase with the pattern
change expected early to mid next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Low stratus has slowly begun to break apart and lift over the
last couple of hours. Still, isolated IFR to widespread MVFR
should persist into this afternoon until clouds finally scatter
enough to result in VFR late this afternoon into tonight.
However, most CAMs suggest fog will at least be a possibility
from 09-14Z Thursday morning. Have at least added a mention of
BR at all terminals during this time period. Greatest confidence
in dense fog looks to be at MKT and EAU where conditions could
fall to LIFR to even VLIFR. Expect another blanket of low
stratus (similar to this morning`s) to accompany the heaviest
fog Thursday morning. This stratus may be slow to break apart to
result in VFR by the end of the period. East-northeast winds
slow near or under 5 knots tonight, then turn southeast and
increase to 5-10 knots Thursday morning.
KMSP...MVFR should persist until around 21Z before clouds
finally lift and break apart enough for VFR to prevail. Have
included BR in the TAF for Thursday morning but fog potential
looks less favorable than Wednesday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion