225 FXUS64 KTSA 041039 AFDTSAArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 537 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- Mostly dry weather with above normal temperatures into next week.
- Low shower and thunderstorm chances exist toward the early to middle of next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
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.SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Another mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day is on tap today, with breezy south winds across northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon high temperatures will warm into the 80s to near 90 degrees.
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.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Sunday and Monday, with breezy conditions again on Sunday across northeast Oklahoma. The upper ridge that has been over the area the past several days will flatten out early next week as an upper trough moves into the central plains. This will allow a weak cold front to drop south across our area late Monday and Tuesday. A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front, and increasing moisture may also allow a few diurnal showers and storms to develop Monday afternoon across mainly northwest Arkansas, well ahead of the front. However, most areas will not see significant rainfall.
Temperatures, especially daytime highs, will cool back closer to normal for a couple days during the middle of next week, but warm weather is likely to return by late week as the upper ridge tries to build back over the area at that time.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Aside from the potential for some light MVFR fog at KFYV this morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. SErly sfc winds will become gusty at the NE OK sites btwn 15 and 20 kts during the day.
Lacy
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 88 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 89 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 88 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 85 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 84 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 88 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 86 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 F10 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
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.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. &&
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SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...30
NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion