Alexander, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

662
FXUS61 KRLX 070712
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
312 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure rules the roost today into much of the new week,
yielding a stretch of dry weather. Cool temperatures in the wake
of a cold front will gradually moderate through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...
Opted to issues a dense fog advisory for portions of Kentucky,
Ohio, and West Virginia where visibilities have consistently
been reduced to a quarter of a mile amid overnight clearing
skies. Elsewhere in the forecast area, low hanging stratus has
been slow to push out of the area, but nevertheless could be
pesky to early morning travel, so elected to issues a Special
Weather Statement in those areas battling the combination of fog
and stratus. If more locations tumble down to visibilities of a
quarter mile, an expansion of the dense fog advisory may be
warranted.
As of 125 AM Sunday...
A quieter weather pattern resumes today as surface high pressure
journeys down into the Ohio Valley. For early this morning,
lingering mid to upper level clouds associated with a cold
frontal passage that took place yesterday is now venturing east
of the mountains. Nighttime microphysics imagery reveals river
valley fog forming in portions of the Tri-State area behind this
clearing line, with more likely to form in other river valley
basins early this morning as more clearing continues.
After the erosion of morning fog occurs today, pleasant weather
will take shape amid the building surface high. Afternoon
temperatures will plateau in the upper 50s across our highest
mountain zones and into the low to mid 70s for the lowlands.
Fair weather cumulus fields may form during the afternoon, but
pose no concerns for further development into showers or
storms.
Sufficient radiational cooling overnight tonight will yield
river valley fog and low stratus into early Monday morning.
Temperatures will topple down into the 40s through the course of
the overnight hours, with sheltered mountain valleys possibly
dipping down into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 AM Sunday...
Surface high pressure continues its residency over the forecast
area during the short term period. This feature will begin
directly overhead on Monday, yielding a chilly start to the
morning under sufficient radiational cooling. A few spots in the
sheltered valleys of the northeast WV mountains could see
temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s while the vast
majority of the forecast area will hover around the 40s. Will
continue to monitor temperature trends to determine whether
frost advisories are warranted, but confidence remains low with
this forecast package.
As high pressure begins to shift to the east on Tuesday,
temperatures will moderate for the afternoon into the low 80s
across the lowlands. Dry weather continues to triumph during
this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Sunday...
High pressure remains the center focus of the forecast period,
now positioned in an elongated fashion from the Central
Appalachians up into New England. Dry weather will continue to
rule the roost through the work week and into the start of next
weekend, with temperatures moderating back towards their
climatological norm for this time of year. Global consensus
holds steady with little to no precipitation rounding out the
forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 AM Sunday...
Clearing skies across the Ohio River Valley early this morning
has resulted in dense fog in the wake of yesterday`s frontal
passage. This trend is progged to continue eastward as the
overnight period wears on, revealing more river valley fog for
all TAF sites. Maintained IFR or worse conditions until 12Z this
morning before branching into VFR for the rest of the day. High
pressure begins its multi-day residency over the region today,
yielding mostly dry weather and fair weather passing cumulus.
More river valley fog is anticipated tonight into Monday
morning. Light winds prevail through the TAF period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of restrictions
associated with fog and low stratus may vary this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              SUN 09/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected after Monday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>007-
     013>015-024>026.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ083-084-
     086-087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion