Allgood, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS64 KBMX 221743
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
The southern humidity has mostly returned that we`re used to
during this time of the year, as southeasterly flow and moisture
advection have increased dewpoints into the upper 60s and lower
70s at midday. A weak easterly wedge was still present over
Central Georgia, but is weakening overall as the surface ridge
begins to retreat to the north and east from the Carolinas. An
upper level shortwave along with 500mb trough axis is currently
moving east and will traverse the Ohio River Valley through the
rest of the day today. Widespread coverage of showers and storms
will remain off to our north as a result, but isolated to
scattered storms will remain in the forecast for a good portion of
our forecast area. CAMs are indicating best coverage across
western and northwestern counties through this afternoon, and PoPs
have been updated into the chance category as a result. Elsewhere,
isolated development is forecast as temperatures rise into the
lower 90s with additional humidity to factor in. What will be a
bit of a change today compared to the past several days will
include fairly breezy southerly winds as a pressure gradient sets
up across the region. We can expect prevailing winds around 10mph
with a few gusts up to 20mph, especially for counties along the
U.S. Highway 278 corridor.
Following another mild night in the 60s as winds diminish overall,
the upper trough axis will lift to the north and east, keeping our
area mostly dry, except for a few isolated to scattered showers
and storms during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface ridging will
broaden westward from the southwest Atlantic, keeping much of the
central Gulf Coast dry and hot. A pocket of dry air aloft will
also keep a lid on convective development despite southerly
surface flow. Temperatures could be a degree or so warmer overall,
topping out in the lower 90s with a few pockets of mid 90s.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
Next big weather maker for central Alabama comes in the form of an
upper level trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern CONUS
the middle to end of this week, and an associated surface cold
front passage. These features should bring some much needed rain
to our area. Time period for highest chances of showers and storms
will be from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Looks
like just about all of central Alabama will get some rain during
that time frame, with average amounts expected to be around an
inch to an inch and a half. Will need to watch details on
mesoscale features, especially in the Wednesday afternoon to
Thursday afternoon time frame. There`s obviously bound to be some
instability around. If the upper trough can muster a strong enough
surface low to enhance shear levels, then there`s a non-zero
chance of some severe storms.
Temperatures behind the front will still be slightly above
seasonal averages, rather than significantly above like we`ve seen
recently.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with much
more isolated SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon. With only
isolated coverage expected, no mention of any SHRA or TSRA have
been added to the TAFs at this time. VCSH is currently ongoing
near TCL, and that location will have the greatest chance of
having amendments later this afternoon. Otherwise, no weather has
been mentioned across all other terminals. Surface winds will be
stronger this afternoon than they have been for quite a while,
prevailing close to 10 knots from the south with a few gusts up to
20 knots not out of the question. Most higher gusts will remain
north of the forecast area, and have left those out of the TAFs
for Central Alabama terminals. Winds diminish overnight with VFR
conditions continuing.
56/GDG
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
Tuesday, with scattered shower and storm chances remaining in the
forecast. Higher rain chances are expected starting on Wednesday,
perhaps lasting as late as Friday, as a cold front moves across
the region. A wide range of RH values are expected during the day
on Wednesday from northwest to southeast, as showers and storms
move into northwest Alabama during the afternoon. Northwest
counties will see RH values of 60+ percent, while RHs are expected
to mix into the upper 30s to lower 40s along and south of the
I-85 corridor.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  40
Anniston    67  90  69  91 /   0  20   0  30
Birmingham  69  93  71  91 /   0  20  10  40
Tuscaloosa  69  93  71  91 /   0  10  10  50
Calera      68  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  30
Auburn      68  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  67  93  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        66  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...56/GDG

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion