Alpine, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

237
FXUS64 KOHX 220529
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast
  through Thursday. There is a low threat for severe storms with
  damaging winds Monday and Tuesday. Some storms will have heavy
  downpours causing minor flooding.
- Temperatures will cool down to near normal values by mid-week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms that formed Sunday afternoon weakened
during the late evening, but scattered showers and a few rumbles will
linger here and there overnight into daybreak Monday.
The next wave will come on Monday with slightly greater coverage
than Sunday. Once again some storms will produce heavy rain.
The passing shortwave will bring an increase in deep layer shear,
so there will be a slightly greater risk for storm organization
and damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon and evening. As of late
Sunday evening, SPC had placed most of the area under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 out of 5).
Scattered showers/storms will continue Monday night and Tuesday with
activity decreasing, but not totally ending overnight. The
coverage and strength of storms will increase again daytime
Tuesday with another low risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Wednesday into Thursday, a closed upper level low pressure system
will form along the Ms River Valley. This will bring widespread
lift and forcing for rain and storms. PWATs will likely be highest
during this time with values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Rain chances
are high Wednesday into Thursday with an increased potential for
localized flooding. The widespread rain and clouds will bring
temperatures down near normal levels.
A front sweeps through the area late Thursday which will keep our
high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Post
front, rain chances will decrease, however, some shower chances will
linger as an upper-level low hangs around into the weekend. Later
next weekend, things dry out with pleasant temperatures lasting
well into the following week as we wrap up September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mainly VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. Have PROB30s in
for afternoon storms at BNA/MQY/CKV as confidence is not high
enough to tempo or prevail. Winds will be around 10 kts from the
southwest tomorrow afternoon before relaxing and becoming
southeast after sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  69  87  69 /  70  60  60  50
Clarksville    85  66  85  67 /  70  70  60  70
Crossville     80  63  79  62 /  60  40  70  40
Columbia       87  67  86  67 /  60  50  50  50
Cookeville     82  64  81  65 /  70  50  80  50
Jamestown      82  64  79  64 /  60  60  80  50
Lawrenceburg   86  66  85  66 /  60  50  50  40
Murfreesboro   87  67  86  67 /  60  50  60  50
Waverly        85  65  83  66 /  70  60  60  70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion