Amelia, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS63 KLBF 010754
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
254 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue across north central
  Nebraska through the morning hours, with dry conditions this
  afternoon.
- Temperatures will continue to remain above average this week,
  with highs in the 80s expected each day. After a cold front
  tracks through the region this weekend, temperatures drop to
  below average early next week.
- Little to no precipitation is expected Thursday and Friday. By
  the weekend, chances for precipitation increase following a
  frontal passage.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are developing along the low level jet in
central and north central Nebraska early this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the mid morning hours
across the region. However, forecast soundings continue to show very
dry low layers in the boundary layer. These dry layers may limit
some of the precipitation reaching the surface, but if showers
persist, then this dry layer may be overcome. With this in mind,
heave kept a slight chance to chance PoPs overnight, as well as some
QPF for areas along the Highway 281 corridor.
After showers and thunderstorms track east out of the region late
this morning, skies remain mostly clear, with highs climbing into
the 80s across the region. Winds are expected to be lighter than the
previous few days, except areas east of Highway 183, where winds
will continue to gust up to 25 mph. By the evening, winds calm
across the region, with light and variable winds across the region.
Overnight lows drop into the low 50s across most of the region,
except areas east of Highway 281, where lows remain in the mid to
upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The long term forecast mostly remains on track. By Thursday, an
upper level ridge remains over western and north central Nebraska,
with a deepening trough tracking across northern California.
Southerly flow continues at the surface, with areas of warm air
advection across western and north central Nebraska. With the slow
moving nature of the trough, the pattern remains similar for Friday,
too. This set up brings the warmest temperatures of the week, with
highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s across the region. In
fact, some locations may break into the lower 90s on Friday. With
the upper level ridge in place and dry low levels in the atmosphere,
no precipitation is expected Thursday and Friday.
By the weekend, the upper level trough tracks across the Four
Corners region, bringing upper level support across western
Nebraska. A low pressure system tracks across the region, along with
a cold front. Latest guidance has continued slowing this system, so
highs are expected to be warmer than average for most of the area on
Saturday. This slower solution has also trended precipitation
chances back to start the weekend, bringing precipitation chances
back down to slight chances (less then 20 percent). However, better
chances of rain arrive Saturday evening into early morning Sunday.
Ensemble forecasts are generally in agreement on precipitation
chances Saturday evening, with multiple members highlighting rain
potential across the region. This is also reflected in the latest
NBM forecast, which brings 40 to 60 percent chances of rain across
the region. In addition to the precipitation chances, temperatures
are expected to cool off behind the front, bringing highs back to
seasonal on Sunday. In fact, we could see highs only climb into the
60s by early next week, which would be slightly cooler than our
average high, which is around 70. Will need to continue to monitor
forecast trends this week, though, as timing and amplitude of the
trough will have impacts on the precipitation chances and
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A brief period of LLWS expected tonight, generally through early
this morning affecting both KLBF and KVTN terminals with LLWS
out of the south around 40 kts. SFC wind will be breezy overnight
for locations across the northern Sandhills with south to
southeast winds around 15 to 20 kts and gust of near 20 kts. Winds
will remain breezy into the afternoon, switching to the
southwest around 10 to 15 kts gust up to 20 kts. Elsewhere winds
will be out of the of the south to southeast around 5 to 10
kts tonight through the day. There may be brief light showers
this morning, but expect them to generally remain east of HWY
83.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion