Applegate, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

892
FXUS66 KMFR 231008
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
308 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Overview:
Overall, weather hazards/impacts continue to be limited. The main
concern is around hot temperatures today and Wednesday with near
record conditions for some locations, mainly west of the Cascades.
High temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above
normal across inland areas. Humidities will also trend drier today
and Wednesday with poor overnight RH recoveries along with breezy
winds. This will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Please
see the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.
Details:
A high pressure ridge is over the region with a low over the
Rockies moving into the Plains today. Meanwhile a cutoff low will
remain well south of the area over and west of southern
California. This is setting up and omega block over the region
with stagnant high pressure remaining in place through the week.
Further north, the upper level westerly jet stream will remain
positioned across Canada.
Today and Wednesday, the ridge will be centered over the area.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures (with high
temperatures about 15 degrees above normal) and dry conditions
across inland areas. Near record afternoon high temperatures are
expected today and Wednesday for some locations west of the
Cascades. In particular, the record for Medford is 100 today and
99 on Wednesday, and we are forecasting a high of 97 both days.
At the surface, a thermal trough is located along the coast. This
is bringing breezy gusty northeast to east winds and low
humidities to the mountains this morning, especially from the
Cascades west. Winds trend slightly lower tonight but expected
another night with low humidities and easterly breezes over the
ridges.
The warm and dry pattern continues through the end of the week.
The cutoff low to the south will drift slightly north-
northeastward late Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, well to the
north, a weak trough will move over the ridge. However, expect
little change in the weather across the area, other than
temperatures trending slightly less hot on Thursday and Friday.
Additionally, we will continue to monitor the low to the south
and its track as it drifts northward Wednesday night and Thursday.
However, current ensembles continue to indicate that moisture
around this low and any thunderstorms that develop will stay south
of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z TAFs...Widespread VFR late this evening will
persist the next 24 hours beneath high pressure, offshore low-
level flow and a strengthening subsidence inversion. Patchy
IFR/LIFR fog could develop very near the coast or just offshore
north of Cape Blanco in a very shallow marine layer (500 ft or
lower). We think most of this will stay to the west of North Bend
due to low-level N-NE winds, but can`t rule out some shallow 2-5
NM mist overnight or first thing Tuesday before VFR prevails
again. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Gusty north winds and steep hazardous seas will persist
across most the waters this morning, then across the outer waters
this afternoon through tonight. Winds may increase Wednesday
afternoon through Friday, resulting in steep to very steep seas,
highest across the waters south of Cape Blanco.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, September 23,
2025...Upper ridging will remain in place over the area today
through Wednesday with warming and drying as a thermal trough
persists along the northern California and Oregon coast. The
thermal trough will result in breezy to gusty east to northeast
winds near and at the ridges, especially in Fire zones 619, 621,
623, and 280, along with moderate to poor overnight recoveries
this morning. Winds trend slightly lower tonight and Wednesday
morning, but expect continued easterly breezes and some poor
recoveries over the ridges. These conditions may result in near or
brief critical fire weather conditions in the zones mentioned
above. During the afternoons, today and Wednesday, expect low to
very low humidities across inland areas with a mix of easterly to
northeasterly/northerly breezes.
We are continuing a headline at the top of the Fire Weather
Planning Forecast for the locally gusty east winds and poor RH
recoveries this morning and again tonight/Wednesday morning. High
temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper
90s west of the Cascades, and in the 80s over the East Side
(about 10-15 F above normal). So, those out on the landscape
should plan for the expected hot weather/unusual warmth. Take
breaks during the peak of the heat in the afternoons and stay
hydrated. The good news is that with the longer nights,
temperatures in the valleys will cool down shortly after sunset.
The upper ridge is expected to persist across the area as a
closed upper low drifts north to northeast into central California
on Thursday. Models keep the thunder risk to the SE of the area
with probabilities generally 10% or less across northern
California zones. Slight cooling is expected Thursday into Friday.
It won`t be quite as hot as today and Wednesday, but still above
normal. This warm and dry pattern continues into the weekend.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion