Arena, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

477
FXUS63 KBIS 082331
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of smoke return to parts of western and south central
  North Dakota this afternoon and evening.
- Warm and mainly dry to start the week.
- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return for
  the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Isolated pockets of weak to moderate radar returns have
developed across much of western and central North Dakota. Dry
conditions found near the surface and at the mid levels are
expected to keep much of this precipitation from reaching the
ground, instead falling as virga. That being said, pockets of
more moderate instability across south central North Dakota has
promoted a few thunderstorms to develop which could allow some
light rain to reach the ground. Due to the dry near surface
conditions, isolated gusts up to 50 MPH are also possible with
any stronger storm that does develop. However, a poorly sheared
environment keeps the potential for severe weather very low
this evening. Update wise, have updated PoPs to account for the
slightly stronger storms in the south central. After
interrogating BUKFIT model soundings, we have also included
patchy fog across much of the James River Valley early tonight
through Tuesday morning. Some high resolution models hint at
greater visibility reductions during this period, though that
may depend on winds becoming weaker than what is currently
anticipated.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Quasi-zonal flow aloft continues across the region as a weak
surface low and warm front lift through the region. The warm
front continues to bring warmer temperatures to the region as
the southwest has warmed up into the mid 80s. There are also
some shower chances and across the southwest this afternoon.
Smoke continues to filter in from eastern Montana impacting the
southwest mainly. The HRRR Smoke model has the main push of
surface smoke filtering into the Northwestern South Dakota
tonight. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the upper
40s north to lower 50s south.
An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the Plains
Tuesday leading to another round of near to above normal
temperatures through the week. However, high clouds and elevated
smoke will likely keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler
then today before temperatures jump back up Thursday. The
aforementioned upper level ridge will pass over during the
middle of the week.
Lee troughing east of the Northern Rockies and surface high
pressure over the Great Lake will lead to a north south
orientated pressure gradient. This will increase winds across
the state Wednesday and Thursday leading to breezy conditions. A
wave is forecast to move into the region late Wednesday brining
in a shot for showers and thunderstorms. Daily low to medium
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
end of the week as shortwaves move through the region. The
pattern looks to be more active this coming weekend as a broad
trough could move through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mainly VFR ceilings and visibility is found at all terminals to
begin the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers are found across much
of the forecast area, with the occasional thunderstorm
developing over south central North Dakota. That being said, a
significantly dry conditions near surface and at the mid levels
is expected to prevent much of this precipitation from reaching
the ground. Tonight through Tuesday morning, fog is expected to
develop over the James River Valley. Have opted to include 1SM
visibility due to BR at KJMS with this update. There is some
potential that this fog could develop even further west, though
winds the somewhat stronger winds here is currently limiting
confidence at this time. Northwest winds this afternoon are
somewhat breezy across the west, though are expected to
generally diminish through the evening and overnight period
while turning northerly.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Adam

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion