Arrow Rock, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS63 KEAX 230725
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
225 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms today. Storms may be capable of
  a few strong wind gusts 40 to 50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall
  is possible south of the Missouri River.
- Chance for rain continues into Wednesday. No strong or severe
  storms are expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Early this morning, a cold front is draped across southern Iowa
extending to a surface low in southeast Nebraska with the cold front
extending southwest from there across central Kansas. This cold
front will progress slowly southeastward through the forecast area
today. As it does several lead shortwaves ejecting out ahead of a
upper level trough over the eastern Rockies moving into the western
High Plains will move through the area. This will produce a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. The severe threat appears
low at this time although modest instability between 1000-1500J/Kg
of MUCAPE and effective shear of 30-40kts will be adequate to
produce a few storms capable of gusty winds to 40-50 MPH. Also, of
minor concern is he potential for flooding. PWAT values between
1.50"-1.75", which falls between the 75th-99th percentile for late
September, will provide for efficient storms. Fortunately,
antecedent conditions have been dry with most areas needing to
receive 2-4" of rain for issues to occur and forecast rainfall
amounts for areas along and south of the Missouri River are 1-2". If
locally higher rainfall amounts are realized its not out of the
question minor localized flooding could occur. With, cloudy and
stormy conditions expected today, highs will remain in the low to
mid 70s. As we move into tonight, the cold front will sink south of
the area, however, the northern energy of an elongated upper trough
extending from the Great lakes into the Central Plains will move
through the region as a closed low develops in the base over the
western Kansas. This wave moving through the region tonight with
continue the chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few storms.
Tomorrow, the closed low over western Kansas will progress slowly
eastward over Kansas during the morning before becoming an open wave
which will move through the local area Wednesday afternoon. This
will continue the chance (20%-40%) of showers and a few storms over
the area on Wednesday with highs in the lower 70s. This system will
slide east of the area Wednesday night with dry conditions returning
to the area for Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the
area. Highs Thursday will return to near normal with highs in the
mid to upper 70s.
The extended period Friday through Monday looks to remain dry and
seasonably warm. The main feature of interest during this time frame
will be a closed upper level low over the southwestern CONUS. In
response to this feature, downstream upper level ridging will build
over the central CONUS. This will allow highs to rise into the upper
70s to mid 80s. Friday through Sunday. Monday, the upper level low
over the southwestern CONUS becomes an open wave that will move into
the southern Rockies however, upper ridging will still remain in
control over the local area with highs remaining in the upper 70s to
mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions continue as two TSRA complexes approach from the
north and west. These will lower CIGs as they approach with
both systems likely congealing upon the terminals.The northern
complex is expected to envelope STJ in the next few hours while
a larger complex looks to reach MCI, MKC, and IXD around
sunrise. Widespread -RA with embedded TSRA are expected with
higher coverage TSRA from 13Z-14Z to 18Z. Scattered RA with
isolated embedded TSRA linger through the afternoon.
Winds remain light generally out of the south and east; however,
winds north of the MO River are expected to turn northerly as
the fist TSRA complex approaches. Winds accelerate becoming
generally easterly with the arrival of the second TSRA complex.
Several uncertainties remain with timing of RA/TSRA primarily
due to the complex dynamics of merging systems. Uncertainties
also persist in TSRA coverage during the afternoon as it will
depend on morning activity and the progression of the system.
Further chances for isolated to scattered RA/TSRA exist beyond
00Z-02Z when the bulk of the precip activity is expected to be
out of the region; however, uncertainty in timing and coverage
remain too high at this time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion