Atco, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

786
FXUS61 KPHI 221718
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
118 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered along the East Coast this afternoon will
move offshore tonight. A cold front currently over the western
Great Lakes will move slowly eastward, reaching our region
Tuesday night or early Wednesday. This front will then stall
over the Mid-Atlantic region through the end of the week into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging along the east coast early this afternoon will settle
offshore tonight. Low level coulds have been stubborn to mix out
with late September sun. However, satellite pics showing clouds
gradually eroding and expect sct-bkn clouds for the rest fo the
afternoon.
A light southerly flow tonight will advect higher moisture into
the region, setting up for low clouds to develop overnight. An
isolated shower is also possible in the Poconos overnight.
A warm front will lift through the region Tuesday morning,
leading to a warmer day with temperatures peaking in the 80s,
but 70s Poconos and shore points. An approaching cold front
and shortwave then bring the risk for showers and even a few
thunderstorms late Tuesday northwest of the I-95 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night, with best
risk being northwest of I-95. The front likely stalls to our
northwest so we`ll probably struggle to get much activity
southeast of I-95. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 60s for
most. While the front will be stalled fairly close by, it should
still be north of most of the region, so we should remain
relatively warm for Wednesday with highs for most near or above
80 once again, though probably a little cooler than Tuesday.
Another approaching shortwave may then bring another risk of
showers and even a few t-storms, though with slightly cooler
temps and thus, less instability, the risk of any severe weather
looks a little lower than Tuesday.
The cold front slides a bit further south finally Wednesday
night, and with the passing shortwave as well, the risk of
showers should rise. Lows again, mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front stalls somewhere in our area thru most of the
long term. One wave of low pressure may ride northeast along the
boundary later Thursday into early Friday, with another over the
weekend, so the risk of showers will remain elevated, with the
best chance right now appearing to be Thursday night. Some
guidance even puts down a substantial amount of rain, so we`ll
have to keep an eye on that potential, but recent dryness likely
limits widespread flood potential. Temps will cool a bit with
highs mostly 70s and lows mostly 60s...warmest south, coolest
northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of Today...VFR. MVFR ceilings will continue in the KRDG
area through 20Z. South wind 5-10 kt.
Tonight...VFR. Some MVFR ceilings possible in the KRDG area and
across interor southern New Jersey. Winds will be out of the
south at 5 knots or less.
Tuesday...VFR. Scattered showers northwest of I-95 corridor
after 18Z. South to southwest wind around 10 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR conditions should prevail,
with scattered showers possibly reducing conditions below VFR
on occasion.
Wednesday night thru Saturday...IFR conditions accompanied by
more frequent showers become more likely.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect.
For the rest of today...East-southeast winds 5 to 10 kts with
Seas 3 to 4 feet. Fair weather.
Tonight...South winds around 10 knots with Fair weather. seas 3
to 4 ft.
Tuesday...Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots with seas around 4 ft,
but there is a possibility seas build up to 5 ft especially well
offshore.
Outlook...
Beyond Tuesday night, wave heights likely subside slightly.
Winds through the period look below SCA levels, but showers will
become possible Tuesday night thru Friday, with the best chance
being Thursday night.
Rip Currents...
For rest of today, southeast winds generally less than 10 mph
with breaking waves of 3 to 4 feet. Easterly swells associated
with offshore Hurricane Gabrielle will build to 3 to 4 feet with
a 11 to 12 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents
for the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
On Tuesday, winds turn more southerly at 10 to 15 mph with
breaking waves 2-4 feet. Southeast swells continue with a 10 to
12 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franklin
NEAR TERM...Franklin/Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion