Badger, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

471
FXUS63 KFGF 090451
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a bit of a break, thunderstorm chances return on
  Thursday and continue off and on through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Got a spotter report of fog east of Detroit Lakes and visibility
has dropped down to a half or even quarter of a mile at
Baudette. Web cams show coverage is extremely patchy currently.
Will include a mention in the grids but hold off on any
headlines for now as uncertain how mid and high clouds moving in
from the west will affect visibility. Still some lingering
showers and thunderstorms just southwest of our CWA as well as
in west central MN, so kept some low POPs going for much of the
night.
UPDATE
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Still getting some showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
southern CWA although a few stray showers have approached Benson
county from central ND. Should continue to see at least isolated
to widely scattered activity as the shortwave moves through and
elevated CAPE continues. Low level jet is feeding storms more to
the east, and shear has been on a downward trend the past few
hours. The threat of severe has diminished and the marginal
risk has been removed. Adjusted POPs for current radar trends,
but lightning and brief downpours will remain the main impacts.
UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Still getting showers and a few weak thunderstorms developing
over the southern Red River Valley into western MN as shortwave
moves through. Not a lot of ML CAPE to work with but elevated
CAPE is around 2500 J/kg and effective shear around 30 kts so
can`t completely rule out some cells strong enough for elevated
hail in the next few hours. Risk still looks marginal so
messaging 1 out of 5 seems reasonable. Made some minor tweaks to
POPs for timing and placement as we head into the overnight, but
no major changes to our messaging.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...Synopsis...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, evening, and
early overnight hours. H5 shortwave continues southeastward along
the downstream side of an approaching ridge. This ridge is expected
to move very slowly to the east, displaying characteristics of a
standing wave or weak blocking pattern. This is due to deep, H5
troughs on either side of the ridge, with slow movement to the east.
Warmer temperatures build into the ridge today through Friday,
allowing afternoon highs to climb well into the 70s to low 80s each
afternoon. Mid 80s become possible heading into Friday and Saturday
before the ridge pushes to the east, giving way to southwest H5
flow. The oncoming flow pattern shows support for showers and
thunderstorms as early as Thursday afternoon, with additional precip
chances each day through Sunday. While it remains too early to
gather exact details, strong storms could be possible late this week
and into the weekend due to multiple shortwave passages.
...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today...
A weak shortwave is moving across the region this afternoon and
evening. A relatively strong 850mb jet is currently moving eastward
into west central Minnesota, providing moisture ahead of the
shortwave and allowing MUCAPE to climb upwards of 2000 J/Kg. Lapse
rates this evening will be high enough to allow a mention of at
least a few stronger storms; however, this conditional threat will
be somewhat short-lived as the low level jet continues eastward. The
primary hazard this evening will be hail up to 1 inch in diameter,
with the potential for smaller hail persisting into the early
overnight period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Visibility starting to drop at KGFK and KBJI, and could see some
LIFR conditions later on towards morning. Will keep vis above
1/2 mile, but will monitor and make amendments as needed as fog
formation will be very patchy. Other TAF sites have vis dropping
but not quite as much. Light and variable winds but mid and high
clouds will also have an impact on fog formation. Fog should
burn off by mid to late morning. Winds will pick up out of the
north by the end of the period but remain under 12 kts.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion