Baird, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

880
FXUS64 KSJT 181731
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm, but near-normal temperatures continue today.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily Sunday
  through Tuesday.
- After above normal temperatures Friday through Monday,
  temperatures should be at least a little cooler Tuesday into
  Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A weak boundary has moved into the Big Country region early this
afternoon, with a more distinct frontal boundary farther north.
The boundary in the Big Country could result in a few isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of the
Interstate 20 boundary this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 60s tonight, with
another warm day Friday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A ridge of high pressure will sit across northern Mexico over the
next few days. This will leave our area under the influence of this
system. This means hot and dry conditions will largely continue
through Friday.
Then, an embedded disturbance will move across the northern Texas
late Saturday. This may be enough to support a low chance for an
isolated rain shower or thunderstorm on Saturday evening through
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) will largely be limited to the
I-20 corridor and northward given the track of this disturbance.
By Monday, both the GFS and the ECMWF indicate a low pressure system
developing across the Plains. However, the GFS keeps the low
centered further to the north, which will limit rain chances given
the track of the low pressure center. Given the differences in model
tracks, it seems reasonable to keep rain chances limited a bit next
week given the uncertainty. This may change if higher levels of
consistency are seen in future model runs. Regardless, what seems
most likely is we see a weak cold frontal boundary move into the
area on Monday and Tuesday. Slightly cooler temperatures will
result, but highs will still remain in the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours at all sites,
although a few SHRA or TSRA could develop near the KABI site.
However, coverage is not expected to be enough for a mention at
the site. South to southeast winds will generally persist at 5 to
10 knots, with a few readings near 15 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  93  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
San Angelo  66  92  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    65  92  66  92 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   68  92  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
Sweetwater  67  92  70  94 /   0  10   0  10
Ozona       65  90  66  90 /   0  10   0  10
Brady       68  90  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion