Bakerville, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

103
FXUS63 KPAH 250007
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
707 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  from late this afternoon through late tonight. A few showers
  will linger into the day Thursday in the southern KY
  Pennyrile.
- A few of the storms could become strong to severe tonight,
  with damaging winds being the main threat. Locally heavy rain
  may also cause isolated flooding issues, mainly across
  southeast Illinois into western Kentucky.
- Another extended period of dry and seasonably warm conditions
  are forecast from Friday through the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A surface cold front is currently pushing through the region
from NW to SE, and convection has begun to develop along a lone
from POF to CIR to PAH. Expecting this activity to grow upscale,
with additional development through the late afternoon. Some
sunshine alone the KY/TN border has allow for modest
destabilization to form, and combined with 00-06 km shear values
around 30 kts, an isolated strong storm with gusty winds cannot
be ruled out.
The other concern tonight will be for storms training along the
frontal boundary, especially overnight as 850 mb LLJ winds
increase parallel to the boundary. Overall, expecting a broad
brush of 0.25-0.50" across the region, with a narrow corridors
of 0.75-1.5" across SE Illinois through W Kentucky. A few
isolated pockets of 2-3" cannot be rule out here. Given the soil
remains quite parched from our recent drought conditions, the
overall flood risk still appears too low to justify a Flood
Watch. However, a isolated flooding problems in low-lying and
poorly- drained locations are possible.
By Thursday morning, the front will still be slowly pushing
towards the southeast part of the forecast area, and lingering
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southern
KY Pennyrile. Otherwise, skies will slowly clear as northerly
winds draw much drier air into the region. The rest of the
forecast period looks quiet, as surface high pressure and
ridging become established over the central CONUS. Temperatures
will be near normal values Thursday and Friday, but will warm to
5-10 degrees above normal by Sunday through the first half of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 707 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving
along a passing cold front this evening which will bring ceiling
and visibility restrictions to the terminals this evening.
IFR/MVFR low stratus will linger through mid-morning Thursday.
Some fog may be possible in the morning hours, mainly at CGI and
PAH. Clouds are expected to scatter out by the late morning and
into the afternoon hours with a return to VFR.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...AD

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion