Baldwin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

022
FXUS63 KTOP 041112
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and windy this afternoon with mid to upper 80s continuing
into Sunday; 10-15 degrees above average.
- Rain and storm chances return Sunday evening and overnight
  with a few storms in the late afternoon/evening possibly
  being strong to severe with hail and damaging winds.
- Cooler temperatures move in for everyone by Tuesday with next
  week looking closer to average for afternoon high
  temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Mostly clear skies and windy conditions are noted across Kansas as a
tightened pressure gradient sets up in response to an approaching
long wave trough to our west. Some mid-level cloud cover has begun
to develop across central Kansas over the past few hours as lift
associated with the LLJ and upper level jet streak strengthens. Over
the course of the day today, the upper-level trough in the western
US will push east into the central Rockies, further deepening the
surface cyclone across western Kansas. The tight pressure gradient
to its east will lead to a well-mixed and gusty afternoon as
southerly winds sustained between 10-20 mph and gusts to 30-35
mph will be commonplace. Expect high temperatures to reach the
mid to upper 80s again this afternoon before falling back into
the mid 60s by Sunday morning.
By Sunday morning, a negatively-tilted shortwave embedded in the
longwave trough will eject the surface trough into western Kansas,
stretching north towards western Minnesota. With the main shortwave
pushing into the northern Plains, much of the day Sunday will be dry
with precipitation chances staying north. Strong southerly flow will
again keep temperatures Sunday afternoon in the mid to upper 80s. As
we get into Sunday afternoon and evening, the surface trough will
have tracked east into north-central Kansas and help to increase
rain and storm chances. Forcing within the surface trough/front
appears to be the strongest across central Kansas and stretching
north into north-central Kansas. Forcing in this area should be
enough to develop convection late Sunday afternoon/early evening.
Given increasing shear profiles and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg along
the boundary, some convection may become strong to severe posing
risks for hail and damaging winds. Initially isolated storms Sunday
evening will quickly grow upscale given shear orientations along the
boundary. Low-level flow increasing ahead of the boundary Sunday
night into Monday morning will promote widespread precipitation
across central and north-central Kansas. Additionally, models do not
seem to move the axis of QPF much during this time range so some
areas could see some appreciable rainfall. With PWATs overnight
ranging from 1.25-1.5", NBM probabilities have increased to 40-60%
chance of areas in north-central Kansas seeing at least 0.5" inch of
rainfall through Monday morning. Chances of rainfall exceeding an
inch for this timeframe Sun/Mon decrease to 25-45%. With the main
area of forcing and moisture stalled mostly over north-central and
northern Kansas, east-central Kansas will likely remain dry until
Monday afternoon when the surface trough and low level boundaries
begin to slide east. Rain and storm chances continue through Monday
evening and into Tuesday morning as isentropic ascent overnight
helps revamp lift and moisture. Guidance seems to keep the main QPF
axis again stretched from central to northeastern Kansas with areas
in east-central and southeastern Kansas missing out on most of the
rainfall.
Subsidence quickly builds in behind the wave Tuesday morning and
afternoon and ushers in a cool ridge of high pressure across the
region. Mostly cloudy skies Tuesday and CAA should allow
temperatures to not warm much above the upper 60s and low 70s. The
remainder of the week should see temperatures stay in the 70s with
another disturbance moving across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday that could bring another round of rain to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR TAFs remain through the period at all sites with wind being
the main hazard over the next 24 hours. Expect wind gusts this
afternoon approaching 30-35 mph, especially at KMHK and KFOE.
Added another line this evening for slightly weaker sustained
winds and gusts, but expect winds and the BL to remain well-
mixed through the overnight hours. No mention of LLWS this
morning or tomorrow morning as winds in the lowest 2 kft will
increase uniformally with height and be realized more as
turbulent mixing.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion