Baskerville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

184
FXUS61 KAKQ 130656
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region through the weekend with
another area of high pressure building into New England early next
week. This will allow for dry conditions and a slight warmup through
Monday. Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
the region by the middle of next week, bringing widespread cloud
cover, cooler temperatures, and rain chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Cool this morning with lows in the low to mid 50s inland and
  mid 60s along the coast.
- Another round of patchy fog is possible late tonight/early Saturday
  morning across mainly the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore.
- Breezy across SE VA/NE NC this afternoon with gusts up to
  around 20 mph possible.
Latest analysis depicted high pressure off the New England coast,
extending down across our area and resulting in mostly clear skies.
There was a broad area of low pressure to our southeast in the
western North Atlantic. Mostly clear skies continue through sunrise,
apart from some cloud cover across the far SE portion of the FA.
Given the high pressure overhead, clear skies, and calm winds
inland, radiational cooling has already allowed temps to drop into
the mid 50s across much of the inland portion of the area. As such,
have lowered low temps for early this morning with lows now expected
to range from the low to mid 50s for inland areas and mid 60s along
the coast. Additionally, patchy fog is again possible early this
morning, with the best chance across the Lower MD Eastern Shore.
The pressure gradient tightens today between the coastal low well
offshore and the high pressure centered to the north. This will
allow for clouds near the coast to build inland later this morning
into this afternoon across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore.
Farther inland, mostly sunny skies continue through the day.
Additionally, NE winds become breezy, due to the tightening pressure
gradient, from late morning through the afternoon across SE VA/NE
NC, with gusts up to ~20 mph possible (highest winds near/along the
coast). Highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected with
the warmest temps inland and the coolest temps along the coast. Will
note that mid 70s are possible for highs along the immediate coast
given onshore flow. Another cool night is expected tonight with lows
in the mid 50s for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s
along the coast. Some locations may even drop into the lower
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining generally dry with near normal temperatures through Monday.
- Breezy conditions are possible along the coast through Monday.
High pressure builds southeast from Canada Sun into Mon. Meanwhile,
a weak coastal low lingers off the Southeast coast. The pressure
gradient between these two features will slacken some on Sun but
tighten again on Mon. As such, breezy conditions will continue to be
possible both days across SE VA/NE NC with stronger winds on Mon.
Wind gusts up to 20 mph are possible Sun along the coast with gusts
up to 20 mph inland and 25 mph along the coast possible on Mon.
Additionally, cloud cover will increase both days with partly sunny
skies Sun (mostly cloudy along the coast) and partly to mostly
cloudy skies everywhere on Mon. However, dry conditions are expected
to continue through at least early Mon. There is a low chance for a
few showers Mon across NE NC and far SE VA, however, confidence is
low (15-25% PoPs). Otherwise, highs in the low-mid 80s Sun and Mon
are expected inland with upper 70s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
  the area through the middle of next week with widespread rain
  and breezy winds along the coast possible.
- A warmup is expected by late week.
Aloft, a tall ridge continues to build into Canada next week,
orienting SW to NE through mid-week. Meanwhile, a coastal trough
lingers through midweek. At the surface, a strong area of high
pressure builds SE into New England early next week, ridging into
the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low lifts north along the coast
through mid-week. While the exact track and timing of the coastal
low remain uncertain, confidence continues to increase in impacts
from the low through the middle of next week with widespread rain
and breezy winds along the coast possible.
The NBM continues to increase with PoPs and now has 30-40% PoPs
across the southern half of the area Mon night, increasing to 35-45%
across the area Tue and Wed. Most model guidance has the low moving
out of the area by Thu with PoPs decreasing to 15-20%. The EPS
continues to show 0.75-1" of rain north of I-64 and 1-1.7" south of
I-64 (highest totals across SE VA/NE NC). The GEPS (Canadian
ensemble) leans towards to the EPS with >1" possible across eastern
VA/NC, however, the GEFS continues to be the low outlier and only
has 

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion