Bastrop, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

488
FXUS64 KJAN 202346 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
646 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight through Tuesday...Despite the Autumn Equinox coming Monday,
September 22, 2025 at 1819Z, the next few days will essentially
be an extension of what`s been a hot summer this year. Highs
through Tuesday will continue to warm into the low and middle 90s
with lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Moisture will subtly
increase across the region during this time, causing increasingly
humid conditions each day. Rain chances will remain diurnally
driven and in the form or mainly isolated showers and storms, with
a stray storm or two intense enough to produce some gusty winds.
These will gradually subside during the early evening hours.
Things will begin to change across the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. /19/
Wednesday through Friday...The forecast gets more interesting during
the middle of next week. Global models have trended more amplified
with a shortwave trough expected to dig southward through the
Mississippi Valley region. As the trough digs and deep layer flow
increases, a developing surface wave and strengthening warm sector
will lower pressures over the forecast area Wednesday. This could
result in a threat for strong to marginally severe multicell
clusters and perhaps a few supercells if the cold frontal timing and
storm initiation coincide with peak heating. We are currently not
messaging for severe weather in our graphics and products, but it
may be a potential threat to monitor as we go through the next few
days.
Going into late week, the trough should slowly shift east, which
could prolong the potential for beneficial rainfall as cyclonic flow
lingers. Otherwise, temperatures will cool to near typical values
for late September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The aftn TSRA have mostly dissipated and no SHRA/TSRA are expected
to impact the TAF sites. VFR conditions wl prevail through the
TAF period although isolated SHRA/TSRA wl develop again Sunday
aftn. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  95  69  92 /  20  20  10  10
Meridian      69  95  67  92 /  20  20  10  10
Vicksburg     70  95  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   69  96  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
Natchez       69  94  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
Greenville    69  94  69  93 /  10  20  10  10
Greenwood     69  96  69  93 /  10  20  20  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
/19/22

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion