Baugh, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS64 KTSA 191807
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
107 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- After a mainly quiet afternoon and evening, storm chances ramp
   back up after midnight tonight and will continue off and on
   through the weekend.
- The unsettled weather regime will continue through the first
   half of next week, with cooler and eventually drier conditions
   expected to arrive behind a cold front for the middle to
   latter part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Expect mainly quiet weather in the wake of the morning MCS through
this evening. After midnight, showers and storms will begin to
develop across SE KS down into NE OK in a waa regime within NW
flow aloft, with a loosely organized MCS to eventually evolve and
drop southeast across NE OK and NW AR into Saturday morning.
Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected Saturday
afternoon mainly along and west of an outflow boundary laid out by
these storms. There will be a limited severe threat with these
storms. CAMs and global models hint at more nighttime storms near
the KS border Saturday night and the possibility of another
southeastward moving MCS into Sunday morning.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Models have a wave slowly traversing across the region in a more
zonal flow Sunday into Monday, keeping higher storm chances in
the forecast. Ensemble data from 00Z still suggests that the more
likely scenario will be for an upper low to develop/organize over
the central Plains by the middle of next week in a split-flow
blocking pattern over the CONUS. A cold front is now expected to
push through the region sometime Tuesday, with an associated
uptick in rain/storm chances followed by cooler and drier
conditions for the middle to latter part of next week. That said,
there are other possibilities that still carry a meaningful
percentage of ensemble solutions, such as upper low dig farther
west or upper low no dig, which would have implications on the
forecast. There`s also the possibility that the upper low sits and
spins overhead or nearby for longer, prolonging the transition to
drier weather.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions expected through 06Z tonight as subsidence occurs on
back side of exiting shortwave. Consensus of guidance brings fog
back into KFYV between 08-12Z Saturday ahead of approaching MCS with
IFR vsby forecast. Also carried MVFR conditions for a brief time at
KROG. Latest CAMs similar with timing of MCS moving out of KS into
northeast OK and northwest AR 12Z-13Z so timed most likely impacts
after that. Winds will be light southeast or variable outside
convection.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  88  68  82 /  30  60  50  70
FSM   69  89  69  86 /   0  20  20  40
MLC   68  92  68  86 /   0  10  30  60
BVO   65  84  64  81 /  60  70  60  60
FYV   63  83  64  83 /  20  50  40  60
BYV   64  79  65  82 /  10  60  50  60
MKO   68  89  67  83 /  10  30  40  60
MIO   66  81  65  81 /  50  80  60  70
F10   67  91  66  85 /  10  20  40  60
HHW   67  91  68  88 /   0   0  10  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion