Beach, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS63 KBIS 162018
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible across the north early Wednesday
  morning.
- On and off showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
  through Friday. The highest chances (40 to 60 percent) are
  Thursday through Friday.
- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, with warmer
  temperatures today and cooler temperatures to finish out the
  second half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Currently an upper level low sits over the border of Montana and
Colorado. Southwest flow is over the Dakotas, with a
thunderstorm complex in western Nebraska and southern South
Dakota. As the upper level low pressure system slides to the
east tonight, showers and thunderstorms are possible after
Midnight across the southern half of the state. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Friday as the upper
level low stalls over the Dakotas. Saturday the low pressure
system gets shoved into Minnesota by a short wave trough from
the Alberta area. Sunday surface high pressure moves in from the
southwest under a quasi-ridging pattern through mid next week.
This will mostly create dry weather. Tonight patchy fog is
possible across the north with high humidity and light winds.
Temperatures through the forecast will cool this week as the
upper level low wraps in cooler air from Canada. As a result of
this, CAPE will lower. This will likely result in a lower
chance of thunder in the otherwise likely chance of showers.
Thursday will be the lowest temperatures with widespread highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Friday that cooler air slides
east ahead of the low, and temperatures warm back into the upper
60s. Thursday and Friday will be the most rainy day, especially
south and central North Dakota. Saturday when the shortwave
moves in, it brings westerly flow aloft, resulting in warm air
advection from the west. This will warm temperatures into the
70s and 80s through early next week as that quasi-ridging flow
continues.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR through the period with chances of showers and thunderstorms
overnight, mainly in the southern half of the state. Confidence
in timing and location are still low enough to keep them PROB30.
This includes KDIK and KBIS. CIGs start to lower near MVFR
Wednesday afternoon in the south. Winds will stay around 10kts
today, either VRB or from the northwest, switching to more
northerly Wednesday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion