Beatty, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

641
FXUS66 KMFR 202113
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
213 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Overview:
Overall, weather hazards and impacts are forecast to be minimal, but
we do have a threat of isolated thunderstorms today and tomorrow, as
well as a threat of frost Sunday night behind a cold front. It
should be noted that Monday morning will be cold for eastside areas
with our typical cold spots in Klamath County below freezing in some
areas which is not out of the ordinary as these areas typically
have a very short growing season. After this weekend, unseasonably
warm temperatures are anticipated, especially Tuesday afternoon
when some areas will be close to triple digits. Next week sure
changed from widepsread precipitation chances to our current dry
forecast. This changed occured on Thursday and hasn`t shifted back
to a wetter pattern, so we will need to keep an eye on fuels for
fire weather after this drying trend.
Further Details:
An upper H5 low off the coast of California will provide divergence
aloft this afternoon. This combined with convective temperatures
likely being reached this afternoon could lead to isolated showers
and thunderstorms (~20%) across northern California and areas east
of the Cascades in Oregon. Not expecting much in regards to
precipitation as there will be dry air to overcome as seen with
inverted-v profiles. Main threats today will be lightning but an
isolated strong outflow is not out of the question.
A broader and stronger area of cyclonic rotation over the Gulf of
Alaska will push into the region and force the aforementioned low
south. A cold front will pass through the region on Sunday which
will result in more widespread rainfall chances along/near the
coast, the Umpqua Basin, and part of Josephine County. While
rainfall will be more widespread, we are not expecting much in
regards to amounts, but a few areas could see amounts near a tenth
of an inch. However, the probability for any area to receive 0.10"
or greater of rainfall is only 40 percent, so this isn`t going to be
a widespread wetting rainfall event by any means. The cold front
will also usher in a colder airmass, and areas on the eastside in
particular could see a threat of frost/freeze. A Frost Advisory
is in effect Monday morning for the Lower Klamath Basin (includes
Klamath Falls) and parts of Modoc County in and around the Alturas
area. Anyone with sensitive vegetation may want to cover or
protect plants that could be damaged from these cold temperatures.
Thereafter, a low will slide south from this broader area of
cyclonic rotation, and traverse along the Rockies over into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will set the stage for an Omega Block
type of pattern over the Conus by Wednesday, while a westerly jet
stream will be noted over much of southern Canada. This split flow
pattern will stick around through next Saturday. This will result in
above normal temperatures and dry conditions through this
stagnant pattern.
-Guerrero
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings continue to impact some coastal areas,
including North Bend late this morning. These should tend to
break up this afternoon. Inland, VFR prevails today, though
isolated showers and thunderstorms may briefly lower
ceilings/visibility to MVFR where they occur this
afternoon/evening.
Tonight into Sunday morning, a cold front will cause a deeper
marine push that will result in some light rain, drizzle and lower
ceilings again at the coast (North Bend) and into the Umpqua
Basin (Roseburg). It may take until after sunrise to reach
Roseburg. Precip fizzles farther south and east, but some lower
clouds could reach to the Cascade Foothills late Sunday morning.
Otherwise, it`s VFR Sunday south and east of there with some
breezy W-NW winds developing in the afternoon, especially east of
the Cascades.
-Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, September 20, 2025...Below
advisory seas continue today and likely through tomorrow. A
passing cold front will bring marine showers and northwesterly
swell, but currently this swell does not look sufficient enough to
build steep seas.
A thermal trough looks to develop early Monday morning, bringing
gusty northerly winds that may build steep seas south of Cape
Blanco through the day. The thermal trough could expand northward
on Tuesday, building a broader area of steep seas. Winds and seas
are forecast to decrease briefly on Wednesday, but wind speeds are
forecast to increase again by Thursday which may lead to steep
seas through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, September 20,
2025... Moisture continues to stream northward into the area today
and this will touch off a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Today`s activity will once again focus
across NorCal and east of the Cascades, but with a slight shift
to the SE compared to the activity the last 2 days. Isolated
showers could linger into the overnight over the East Side, but
most of the activity will diminish by late this evening.
On Sunday, a cold front will move through with some light
rain/drizzle along the coast and into NW Douglas County, but
precipitation will fizzle at the mountains as the front presses
inland. Aside from a stray shower or thunderstorm (10-15% chance)
preceding the front over Modoc and/or southeast Lake County, the
frontal passage will be a dry one east of the Cascades. Gusty
afternoon west winds are possible there though where RAWS guidance
continues to show peak late PM/eve wind gusts in the 25-35 mph
range for some of the typically windier sites. Some west side
valleys too could have breezy winds for a time Sunday
afternoon/evening.
Upper ridging builds Monday and Tuesday, so it will dry out and
warm up. That said, there will be some cool to chilly mornings
with steep inversions (coldest east of the Cascades with temps
possibly down near freezing). There should be a period of N-NW
through E-NE winds (not too strong) on the upper slopes/ridges
Sunday night/Monday (with good RH recovery), then again Monday
night/Tuesday with poor to moderate RH recovery (winds should be a
lighter). RHs continue to trend downward Tuesday with some single
digit MinRH possible as temps peak in the upper 90s west of the
Cascades and in the mid-upper 80s over the East Side.
A closed upper low will wobble into the Great Basin to our south
and east Wed-Fri largely maintaining the upper ridge across
southern Oregon and NorCal. Some moisture will try to come north
through the Sierra and may edge far enough north to touch off a
thunderstorm in far SE sections either Wed or Thu PM/Eve (again
10-15% probs), but overall, it will remain dry and warm. The air
mass should modify some west of the Cascades during this stretch
(especially Thu/Fri), so, it won`t be quite as hot as earlier in
the week, but still above normal.
-Spilde
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for ORZ028-
     029.
CA...Frost Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ084-
     085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion