Bellarthur, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS62 KMHX 052352
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
752 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide quiet weather for the majority of the
CWA through Saturday, although a stalled boundary offshore will
bring a low-end chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to
the coast tomorrow. A cold front will move through the area
Saturday night, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances to the area on Sunday. High pressure will build in late
this weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 8 PM Friday...Tonight will be mild with lows hovering a
couple of degrees either side of 70. Guidance continues to show
the potential for fog (possibly dense at times) and low stratus
tonight, with the greatest potential across the inner coastal
plain and southwestern zones of the forecast area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1:25 PM Friday...Fog and low stratus may linger a couple
of hours past sunrise tomorrow morning with greatest cloud cover
hanging on near the coast.
Tomorrow will be the transition point in the forecast when conditions
start to become slightly more unsettled. The upper low will
continue to move north, allowing heights to increase across the
area again. At the surface, a cold front will approach the area
from the west while a weak offshore low will ride northeast
along a stalled boundary roughly parallel to the southeast
coast. Low level moisture will be increasing, so cloud cover
will be greater than we`ve had over the past several days
(greatest along the coast). The cold front isn`t forecast to
enter our western counties until tomorrow night, but the stalled
boundary offshore may support a few scattered showers with an
isolated rumble of thunder along the immediate coast in the
morning. Precip chances along the coast will continue into the
afternoon and evening given additional forcing from the
seabreeze, but the coastal plain is expected to remain dry.
Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the low-90s
across the coastal plain and mid-80s at the beaches. Given the
increase in moisture, however, it`ll feel slightly more humid.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Fri...
Key Messages
- Cooler and unsettled late this weekend into next week
The front will move through Saturday night into early Sunday.
Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will allow for temps
to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the
coast. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Sat night.
High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and early next
week. Weak wedge looks to set up behind the front into next
week, as front lingers offshore (waves developing along it) and
potential coastal troughing, which would give way to NE flow,
more clouds than sun and increased shower chances...with best
chances along the coast. Best chances for scattered showers and
storms will be Sunday afternoon and evening. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Another front will approach the area late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 8 PM Friday...With the lower levels becoming more
saturated, guidance indicates a much better potential for fog
and low stratus development across much of the forecast area
tonight, with the greatest potential across the coastal plain
and southwestern portions of the forecast area. OAJ has the best
chance at seeing the densest fog, but all terminals are
expected to drop to at least MVFR VIS by 08/09z. Fog may become
dense at times with conditions expected to bottom out between
9-12z. Have introduced 1 SM visibilities for the coastal
terminals of OAJ/EWN as guidance shows the best potential for
IFR visibilities at these terminals. Confidence is lower for
visibilities dropping to IFR visibilities for PGV/ISO, so have
opted against including IFR VIS for these terminals as of this
cycle. As for low stratus, guidance depicts 300-500 ft clouds
developing across all TAF sites after 7/8Z tonight. Conditions
are expected to improve back to VFR by around 13z and remain so
through the rest of the period.
LONG TERM /Saturday afternoon through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...A cold front will move through Saturday
night and early Sunday. Widespread sub-VFR cigs may develop
behind the front Sat night and Sunday, potentially lingering
into early next week. Scattered showers and storms expected
Sunday afternoon and eve.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 2:15 PM Friday...SSW winds around 10 kt will become
variable early tomorrow morning but return to SWerly by the
afternoon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft through tomorrow afternoon
and build to 2-4 ft by tomorrow evening.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Fri...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
The front will move through the waters Saturday night and early
Sunday. Moderate NNE flow will develop behind the front Sunday
10-15 kt, increasing to 15-25 kt Mon and Tue. Seas will remain
at 2-4 ft this weekend, building to 4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/ZC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/ZC
MARINE...CQD/OJC

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion