Bickley, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

042
FXUS62 KJAX 241214
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
814 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Near Record Highs & Inland Heat Indices 95-105 F through Friday
- High Rip Current Risk St. Johns & Flagler Beaches Today
- Marine & Surf Zone Hazard Potential Early Next Week
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 814 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 21Z. Isolated convection is expected to develop late this
afternoon through the early evening hours for locations west of
the Interstate 95 corridor, with potential impacts to the VQQ and
GNV terminals. Confidence was only high enough for a PROB30 group
for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours after 21Z at VQQ and
GNV, with activity expected to dissipate towards 03Z. Confidence
elsewhere was only high enough for vicinity showers at JAX and SGJ
after 17Z. Periods of IFR conditions will be possible after 07Z at
VQQ, while MVFR visibilities will be possible after 09Z at GNV.
Visibilities may also lower at JAX towards sunrise on Thursday,
but confidence was too low to indicate any restrictions near the
end of this TAF period at this time. Light west or northwesterly
surface winds are expected to develop at the regional terminals
towards 13Z, followed by winds becoming onshore at the SSI and
SGJ coastal terminals towards 16Z, with sustained speeds
increasing to around 10 knots by 19Z. Surface winds will shift to
southwesterly at 5-10 knots at GNV after 20Z, while surface winds
elsewhere shift to southerly or southeasterly at 5-10 knots during
the early to mid afternoon hours.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Late night showers were finally fading across Baker and western
Duval counties with shallow ground fog starting to develop across
inland southeast GA where less cloudiness streamed overhead.
Patchy to areas of fog with localized visibility < 1 mile at
times is expected inland through daybreak with just above average
low temperatures falling into the 70s.
Mostly dry conditions under partly cloudy skies prevail through
the early afternoon as surface high pressure extends across the
local area. Inland temps rise to near record values once again
with weak steering flow enabling both seas breezes to migrate
inland into the afternoon, triggering a few airmass and sea breeze
showers and storms. Drier mid/upper level air across southeast
Georgia under a 500 mb ridge axis will limit rain chances while
deeper moisture across northeast Florida on the southern side of
the ridge with slightly cooler temperatures aloft favor slightly
higher rain chances and isolated thunderstorm potential. The
higher rain chances of 30-40% were focused late afternoon into the
early evening between Highway 301 and Interstate 75, with
resultant storms edging slightly eastward after sunset as weak
southwesterly steering flow begins to develop. The main hazard
in storms today will be gusty wet downbursts given elevate DCAPEs.
Convection fades inland through midnight with another round of
late night inland fog, which may be more of low stratus from the
Gulf Coast region as low level southwesterly flow develops.
Temperatures will again rise to near record values from the mid
90s inland to near at the coast with heat index values 95-105
degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High pressure ridge across the area will start to break down and
shift northeastward away from the area on Thursday as a cold front
and upper trough approaches from the northwest. This will shift
the low level flow more southwestward Thursday, helping to persist
above normal temperatures but also pinning the afternoon sea
breeze closer to the coast. Certainly looks to be enough layer
moisture with PWATs in the 1.7 to 2 inch range for diurnal
convection to fire, with the focus area likely to be from interior
to coastal northeast FL with sea breeze collisions. Given the
approaching front from the northwest, a decaying squall line-like
feature may try to approach interior southeast GA as well, though
looks like this would occur Thursday Night and therefore impacts
would quickly diminish. Otherwise, some convection with lingering
boundary collisions may continue into roughly the first half of
Thursday Night with lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to the
low to mid 70s south and east.
A piece of the upper trough approaching the southeastern states
"breaks off" on Friday, diving towards the Gulf Coast before
likely closing off somewhere near northern Alabama Friday Night.
There essentially looks to be two almost mutually exclusive areas
of impact for Friday: One being more sea breeze driven convection
over northeast FL and coastal GA, and showers and storms out ahead
of the upper trough and surface front flirting with and/or
impacting interior GA and perhaps the Upper Suwannee Valley in FL
Friday evening and possibly into Friday Night. Will certainly
depend on timing of features at play which will be monitored over
the next day or two. Regardless, looking like a similar concern
area for the highest chances for diurnal convection as to Thursday
(eastern "half" of NE FL and coastal GA) where southwesterly flow
meets the nearly pinned sea breeze. Highs will remain mostly above
average in the upper 80s to low 90s, though interior GA and the
upper I-75 area of NE FL will likely see more mid and high clouds
with the front to the west/northwest, and therefore temps a few
degrees lower. Like Thursday, some convection may linger into the
start of Friday Night with any mesoscale boundaries in addition to
the chance for some frontal convection over west/northwestern
areas with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s common once again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Long range guidance remains in pretty good agreement with respect
to the aforementioned upper low meandering over the southeastern
states through at least the start of the weekend, with the exact
movement and progression late this weekend and into early next
week still in question. Some guidance such as the ECMWF suggests
very slow to nearly stationary movement over the interior
southeast through the weekend before lifting more north to
eventually northeastward early next week. GFS suggests a much
further northwest to westward retrograde type of movement with
this same low. Moral of the story is not only would some of
differences in these solutions have significant impact on the
pattern and expected conditions, but the solutions also lack
consistency overall, especially from about Sunday onward, which
lowers forecast confidence. This is especially important as it
relates to how this mid level trough/low will help influence the
eventual track of a two separate potential tropical systems
progged to be tracking NNW near the Bahamas and western Atlantic
late this weekend and into early next week. At this time, most
guidance and ensemble members continue to keep the center of both
of these systems east of the local Atlantic coast early next week,
which would support potential marine and surf zone hazards early
next week, including building seas, frequent rip currents, rough
surf and potential tidal flooding impacts. However, given the
uncertainty, please continue to monitor the latest forecast
guidance over the coming days from official sources including our
office at weather.gov/jax and the National Hurricane Center at
hurricanes.gov.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High pressure extending across the local waters today will shift
south through Thursday, with daily sea breezes. A surface front
approaches from the west-northwest late Thursday with an increase in
showers and thunderstorms and southerly winds. Wet and unsettled
weather is expected Friday and Saturday as the front lingers over
the area. Sunday, the front will shift south of the local area as a
tropical system approaches the eastern Bahamas, with increasing
northeast winds over the local waters.
Rip Currents: A high rip current risk continues for St. Johns and
Flagler county beaches today with longer period 10-12 second ESE
swells. A moderate rip current risk is in effect for Duval,
Nassau, Camden and Glynn county beaches today. A moderate rip
current risk is expected for all local beaches Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for the St. Johns River basin south of
the Shands Bridge toward Satsuma has ended as peak tidal levels
were just shy of minor inundation levels yesterday evening around
high tide. Water levels will continue to peak in Action stage over
the next few days, with a gradual decrease in wave amplitude.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The past 2 days Gainesville was within 1 degree of a daily record
high temperature: 9/23 96 (record 97 set in 1925) and 9/22 96 (96
set in 1925).
Craig Airfield reached 90 yesterday (9/23) which was 1 degree
shy of the daily record high of 91 (set in 2016).
Daily record highs and daily record high minimum temperatures for
the next couple of days are below:
DATE     9/24     9/25     Normals
JAX      94/2019  96/2019  High: 86
         78/1951  76/1930  Low: 69
CRG      93/2019  95/2019  High: 85
         77/2017  76/1998  Low: 71
GNV      95/1997  96/1931  High: 87
         75/1998  74/2010  Low: 68
AMG      95/2019  98/1961  High: 86
         74/2000  74/1988  Low: 65
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  70  92  69 /  10  10  30  30
SSI  88  74  89  73 /   0  10  20  30
JAX  94  73  93  72 /  20  10  40  20
SGJ  90  74  91  72 /  10  10  40  40
GNV  95  71  93  69 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  94  73  91  72 /  30  10  50  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ138-233-333.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion