042 FXUS62 KJAX 241214 AFDJAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 814 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Near Record Highs & Inland Heat Indices 95-105 F through Friday
- High Rip Current Risk St. Johns & Flagler Beaches Today
- Marine & Surf Zone Hazard Potential Early Next Week
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 814 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 21Z. Isolated convection is expected to develop late this afternoon through the early evening hours for locations west of the Interstate 95 corridor, with potential impacts to the VQQ and GNV terminals. Confidence was only high enough for a PROB30 group for MVFR conditions during heavier downpours after 21Z at VQQ and GNV, with activity expected to dissipate towards 03Z. Confidence elsewhere was only high enough for vicinity showers at JAX and SGJ after 17Z. Periods of IFR conditions will be possible after 07Z at VQQ, while MVFR visibilities will be possible after 09Z at GNV. Visibilities may also lower at JAX towards sunrise on Thursday, but confidence was too low to indicate any restrictions near the end of this TAF period at this time. Light west or northwesterly surface winds are expected to develop at the regional terminals towards 13Z, followed by winds becoming onshore at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals towards 16Z, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 19Z. Surface winds will shift to southwesterly at 5-10 knots at GNV after 20Z, while surface winds elsewhere shift to southerly or southeasterly at 5-10 knots during the early to mid afternoon hours.
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.NEAR TERM... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Late night showers were finally fading across Baker and western Duval counties with shallow ground fog starting to develop across inland southeast GA where less cloudiness streamed overhead. Patchy to areas of fog with localized visibility < 1 mile at times is expected inland through daybreak with just above average low temperatures falling into the 70s.
Mostly dry conditions under partly cloudy skies prevail through the early afternoon as surface high pressure extends across the local area. Inland temps rise to near record values once again with weak steering flow enabling both seas breezes to migrate inland into the afternoon, triggering a few airmass and sea breeze showers and storms. Drier mid/upper level air across southeast Georgia under a 500 mb ridge axis will limit rain chances while deeper moisture across northeast Florida on the southern side of the ridge with slightly cooler temperatures aloft favor slightly higher rain chances and isolated thunderstorm potential. The higher rain chances of 30-40% were focused late afternoon into the early evening between Highway 301 and Interstate 75, with resultant storms edging slightly eastward after sunset as weak southwesterly steering flow begins to develop. The main hazard in storms today will be gusty wet downbursts given elevate DCAPEs.
Convection fades inland through midnight with another round of late night inland fog, which may be more of low stratus from the Gulf Coast region as low level southwesterly flow develops.
Temperatures will again rise to near record values from the mid 90s inland to near at the coast with heat index values 95-105 degrees.
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.SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High pressure ridge across the area will start to break down and shift northeastward away from the area on Thursday as a cold front and upper trough approaches from the northwest. This will shift the low level flow more southwestward Thursday, helping to persist above normal temperatures but also pinning the afternoon sea breeze closer to the coast. Certainly looks to be enough layer moisture with PWATs in the 1.7 to 2 inch range for diurnal convection to fire, with the focus area likely to be from interior to coastal northeast FL with sea breeze collisions. Given the approaching front from the northwest, a decaying squall line-like feature may try to approach interior southeast GA as well, though looks like this would occur Thursday Night and therefore impacts would quickly diminish. Otherwise, some convection with lingering boundary collisions may continue into roughly the first half of Thursday Night with lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to the low to mid 70s south and east.
A piece of the upper trough approaching the southeastern states "breaks off" on Friday, diving towards the Gulf Coast before likely closing off somewhere near northern Alabama Friday Night. There essentially looks to be two almost mutually exclusive areas of impact for Friday: One being more sea breeze driven convection over northeast FL and coastal GA, and showers and storms out ahead of the upper trough and surface front flirting with and/or impacting interior GA and perhaps the Upper Suwannee Valley in FL Friday evening and possibly into Friday Night. Will certainly depend on timing of features at play which will be monitored over the next day or two. Regardless, looking like a similar concern area for the highest chances for diurnal convection as to Thursday (eastern "half" of NE FL and coastal GA) where southwesterly flow meets the nearly pinned sea breeze. Highs will remain mostly above average in the upper 80s to low 90s, though interior GA and the upper I-75 area of NE FL will likely see more mid and high clouds with the front to the west/northwest, and therefore temps a few degrees lower. Like Thursday, some convection may linger into the start of Friday Night with any mesoscale boundaries in addition to the chance for some frontal convection over west/northwestern areas with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s common once again.
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.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Long range guidance remains in pretty good agreement with respect to the aforementioned upper low meandering over the southeastern states through at least the start of the weekend, with the exact movement and progression late this weekend and into early next week still in question. Some guidance such as the ECMWF suggests very slow to nearly stationary movement over the interior southeast through the weekend before lifting more north to eventually northeastward early next week. GFS suggests a much further northwest to westward retrograde type of movement with this same low. Moral of the story is not only would some of differences in these solutions have significant impact on the pattern and expected conditions, but the solutions also lack consistency overall, especially from about Sunday onward, which lowers forecast confidence. This is especially important as it relates to how this mid level trough/low will help influence the eventual track of a two separate potential tropical systems progged to be tracking NNW near the Bahamas and western Atlantic late this weekend and into early next week. At this time, most guidance and ensemble members continue to keep the center of both of these systems east of the local Atlantic coast early next week, which would support potential marine and surf zone hazards early next week, including building seas, frequent rip currents, rough surf and potential tidal flooding impacts. However, given the uncertainty, please continue to monitor the latest forecast guidance over the coming days from official sources including our office at weather.gov/jax and the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov.
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.MARINE... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
High pressure extending across the local waters today will shift south through Thursday, with daily sea breezes. A surface front approaches from the west-northwest late Thursday with an increase in showers and thunderstorms and southerly winds. Wet and unsettled weather is expected Friday and Saturday as the front lingers over the area. Sunday, the front will shift south of the local area as a tropical system approaches the eastern Bahamas, with increasing northeast winds over the local waters.
Rip Currents: A high rip current risk continues for St. Johns and Flagler county beaches today with longer period 10-12 second ESE swells. A moderate rip current risk is in effect for Duval, Nassau, Camden and Glynn county beaches today. A moderate rip current risk is expected for all local beaches Thursday.
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.HYDROLOGY...
The Coastal Flood Advisory for the St. Johns River basin south of the Shands Bridge toward Satsuma has ended as peak tidal levels were just shy of minor inundation levels yesterday evening around high tide. Water levels will continue to peak in Action stage over the next few days, with a gradual decrease in wave amplitude.
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.CLIMATE... Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The past 2 days Gainesville was within 1 degree of a daily record high temperature: 9/23 96 (record 97 set in 1925) and 9/22 96 (96 set in 1925).
Craig Airfield reached 90 yesterday (9/23) which was 1 degree shy of the daily record high of 91 (set in 2016).
Daily record highs and daily record high minimum temperatures for the next couple of days are below:
DATE 9/24 9/25 Normals
JAX 94/2019 96/2019 High: 86 78/1951 76/1930 Low: 69
CRG 93/2019 95/2019 High: 85 77/2017 76/1998 Low: 71
GNV 95/1997 96/1931 High: 87 75/1998 74/2010 Low: 68
AMG 95/2019 98/1961 High: 86 74/2000 74/1988 Low: 65
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 96 70 92 69 / 10 10 30 30 SSI 88 74 89 73 / 0 10 20 30 JAX 94 73 93 72 / 20 10 40 20 SGJ 90 74 91 72 / 10 10 40 40 GNV 95 71 93 69 / 40 20 40 20 OCF 94 73 91 72 / 30 10 50 20
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.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ138-233-333.
GA...None. AM...None. &&
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NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion