Bickley, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

854
FXUS62 KJAX 230614
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
214 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday all Local Beaches
- Inland Heat Indices 100-105F Today through Friday
- Daily Isolated Thunderstorm Risk
- Tropical Atlantic Becoming Active  Monitor hurricanes.gov
- Marine & Surf Zone Hazard Potential Early Next Week
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Areas of fog are developing inland where winds are nearly calm as
high pressure retreats away to the northeast. A few light showers
are just northeast of Brunswick and St Simons island but shade
end over the next few hours as a weak coastal trough axis lifts
slowly towards the SC coast towards dawn. Temperatures will remain
in the upper 60s inland north of I-10 and and the low/mid 70s at
the coast and north central FL.
Today, weakening high pressure to the northeast will center more
to the east northeast through tonight. Weak synoptic flow and
stronger heating will allow for seabreeze circulations to develop
with the Atlantic seabreeze progressing inland past highway 301
due to net easterly onshore flow, creating isolated to widely scattered
showers and a few T`storms before merging with the Gulf seabreeze
near I-75 over NE FL where above normal moisture levels will be in
place. A weak shortwave moving over the FL peninsula from the
eastern Gulf may help support an isolated strong T`storm later in
the afternoon hours where the seabreezes merge near I-75 south of
I-10 into north central FL. Skies will be partly cloudy as highs
reach the low 90s along and west of I-95 with upper 80s at the
coast.
Tonight, mostly clear skies will allow for patchy areas of fog
to form inland. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s at the coast and
upper 60s north of I-10 inland and low 70s south of I-10.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Synopsis...Summer-like pattern and hot with near record high
temperatures and daily peak heat index values reaching 100-105
degrees inland to 95-100 degrees at the local Atlantic coast.
Weak southerly steering flow < 5 kts Wednesday will enable both
west and east coast sea breezes to develop and press inland, with
a merger across interior locations in the afternoon. Thursday,
stronger southwest steering flow develops through the day which
will push a stronger west coast sea breeze inland with boundary
and sea breeze mergers focused more toward the Atlantic coast in
the late afternoon/early evening. Wednesday weak ridging aloft
will keep generally garden variety showers and thunderstorms, but
by Thursday a few isolated stronger storms are possible in the
afternoon and evening across southeast Georgia and toward the FL
Atlantic with increasing SW flow aloft and some approaching short
wave trough PVA, which could continue storms after sunset across
southeast Georgia. Main storm hazards each day will be locally
heavy rainfall due to high moisture content and weak storm motion
as well as gusty wet downbursts.
High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s, including at
the beaches, before the east coast sea breeze moving inland. These
values are about 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Nighttime lows will trend in 70s for most locations with a few
upper 60s across inland areas. This time of year average high
temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper
60s to near 70. With elevated dew pts in the low to mid 70s across
northeast Florida and much of southeast Georgia, heat index values
will top out in the 100-106 degree range each day...still below
local heat advisory criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A wet and unsettled Friday as pre-frontal convection moves across
the area, with a few strong thunderstorms possible with an
approaching fading squall line from the west into the afternoon
and evening. The surface front begins to stall across the Florida
peninsula into the weekend, maintaining a chance of showers and
storms across Florida with lower rain chances across southeast
Georgia under drier WNW flow. Temperatures will trend back toward
normal values into the weekend and early next week.
Latest extended forecast models are showing better consistency
with not just an eastern CONUS trough this weekend, but a closed
500 mb low in the base of the trough forming across the deep south
Sunday, then possibly retrograding Monday. How this mid level
trough and potential closed low evolve and possibly migrate early
next week will help influence the eventual track of a potential
tropical system progged to be tracking NNW near the Bahamas this
weekend. At this time, most ensemble members keep the center of
the system east of the local Atlantic coast early next week. These
solutions support potential marine and surf zone hazards early
next week, including building seas, frequent rip currents, rough
surf and potential tidal flooding impacts.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast guidance from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
IFR/LIFR fog expected to restrict visibilities inland through
this morning`s early morning hours. Fog and low stratus will lift
after 13Z with VFR conditions thereafter through the 06Z period.
Most isolated to widely scattered showers and T`storms will be
south of the duval county terminals at GNV and SGJ where better
moisture will be while too dry at SSI for shower development.
Easterly winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze will be 5-10 knots
today and become variable by 00Z with weak high pressure over the
area terminals. Fog potential returns after the end of the TAF
period inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Today, winds become more easterly and lighter as weak high pressure
reforms more to the east northeast through this evening. Wednesday
into Thursday, high pressure will extend across south Florida as a
surface front approaches from the west-northwest. An increase in
showers are expected Friday into Saturday as the front arrives
into the area waters bringing elevated southerly winds and exercise
caution conditions.
Rip Currents: High rip current risk at the Northeast Florida and
Southeast Georgia Beaches Today through Wednesday for ongoing
long wave periods and easterly onshore winds behind the Atlantic
seabreeze.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Hydrology: Peak water levels have been steadily rising at Satsuma
the last 2 days towards 1.5 ft MHHW, so despite PETSS not very
strong on a signal for higher water levels, have placed a coastal
flood advisory for eastern Putnam county as easterly winds help
to prevent the overall drainage of the lower St Johns river
through Wednesday evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Daily record highs and high minimum temperatures for the next
few days are below:
DATE     9/23     9/24     9/25     Normals
JAX      95/1925  94/2019  96/2019  High: 86
         78/1933  78/1951  76/1930  Low: 69
CRG      91/2016  93/2019  95/2019  High: 85
         79/2005  77/2017  76/1998  Low: 71
GNV      97/1925  95/1997  96/1931  High: 87
         75/1933  75/1998  74/2010  Low: 68
AMG      94/2010  95/2019  98/1961  High: 86
         76/2000  74/2000  74/1988  Low: 65
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  69  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  86  73  87  74 /  10   0  10  10
JAX  91  72  92  73 /  10   0  20  10
SGJ  88  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  94  70  94  70 /  20  10  30  20
OCF  92  72  93  72 /  40  20  30  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ137.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion