Big Pine Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS62 KKEY 011726
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
126 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Dry air will limit shower development so no mention of
VCSH at either terminal. Light and variable winds will be mostly
northwesterly.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Happy first day of October! A mostly uneventful morning is
unfolding for the Florida Keys. KBYX has detected some isolated
showers across the CWA, but now are limited to the northern deep
Gulf waters. Outside of these light pop up showers, a majority of
the island chain appears cloud-free on GOES-19 Visible satelitte
imagery. This morning`s KKEY 12z sounding revealed we are still in
a pocket of dry air and MIMIC Precipitable Water backs that up.
Temperatures across land are in the mid 80s with dew points in the
mid 70s making for a pretty warm day ahead. Along the Reef, winds
are starting to slacken as Hurricane Imelda moves even farther
away from our CWA and high pressure builds back in. Not much
change is expected for the remainder of the day with slackening
breezes and occasional isolated showers, therefore, no changes
were made to this update cycle.
&&
.FORECAST...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
As Hurricane Imelda continues to trek northeast across the North
Atlantic, high pressure currently descending down from eastern
Canada will slowly move into the eastern U.S. As this occurs, the
gradient across the Keys will temporarily weaken today and allow
for what residual moisture remaining to pool across south Florida
and the Keys. Given a generally northerly steering flow, any
additional showers that develop this afternoon across the
mainland may drift over the Keys. This would tend to favor the
Upper Keys the most.
By Thursday the high will gradually build as it begins to slide
into the western North Atlantic. This will lead to winds locally
shifting around from out of the northeast and freshening. This
will also lead to slightly better rain chances due to a
combination of residual low level moisture and better convergence.
The high will move eastward into the Atlantic by Friday and stall
while building. This will lead to generally easterly flow, along
with an ebb and flow of moisture. As a result, rain chances will
fluctuate depending on when better pockets of moisture move
through. All in all, slightly above normal rain chances are
expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Lastly, northerly swells will continue due in part to departing
Imelda and the subsequent building high across the Atlantic. This
will cause the Gulf Stream to back up and lead to minor coastal
flooding, especially in the Upper Keys.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the
Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, Hurricane Imelda will
continue to track northeastward, and will allow for higher
pressure to build in its place, resulting in gentle breezes
gradually slacken into Thursday morning. The high pressure over
the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western
North Atlantic, and build, freshening northeast to east breezes
starting Thursday afternoon. Winds will then clock around towards
the southeast for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion