059 FXUS66 KSTO 282038 AFDSTOArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 138 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures with widespread wetting rain early through the middle of this week across interior NorCal, with the highest chances within the Coastal Range, southern Cascades, and northern Sierra. Drier and warmer conditions heading into next weekend.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
* TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
- Moisture and instability ahead of the low pressure system will bring thunderstorm chances south of I-80 this afternoon (generally 15-30%, highest south of HWY 50).
- Low pressure moves into the area starting Monday, bringing chances for widespread wetting rain through Wednesday. Highest totals will be over the mountains.
- Monday also sees a 10-40% chance for thunderstorms across interior NorCal, with highest chances in the foothills and along the Sierra Crest. Non-zero chance for convection to continue into the overnight hours.
- The overall trend in precipitation totals has trended down again slightly, with most of the Valley looking at less than half an inch of rain over the 72 hr period. - 20-50% chance of a half inch of rain or more in the central and southern Sacramento Valley, and northern San Joaquin Valley - 60-80% chance in the northern Sacramento Valley - 50-80% chance of 1 inch or more of rain in the mountains
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
- Lingering showers are possible Thursday morning, though there is still some uncertainty in the timing of the end of this system and any totals for Thursday.
- Friday sees a return to dry weather and a slight warming trend into the weekend, with daytime highs reaching closer to normal.
.AVIATION... MVFR conditions in the northern and southern Sacramento Valley from overcast to broken clouds with 1000 to 2000 ft ceilings through 21z before decreasing througout the eveninig. VFR conditions otherwise with onshore flow and gusts 15-20 kts over the Valley and mountains until 06z Monday.
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.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion