Black River, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS63 KAPX 080655
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
255 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Mild temperature return Today through the end of the week with
daytime highs remaining around climatological norms for early
September.
-Additional precipitation chances return this Tuesday... mainly
affecting areas along eastern upper.
-High pressure will continue precip-free weather through the
majority of the long term period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Split midlevel flow pattern begins to develop
across North America with northern branch troughing advecting
outside of the Great Lakes region. Weak southern flow will keep the
region in an inactive synoptic pattern today through the entirety of
the work week.
Forecast Details...
Today... Surface high pressure develops today across the entire
eastern half of the CONUS, resulting in mostly sunny skies along
with quiet weather through the entirety of the short term period.
Midlevel heights rising slightly compared to yesterday will begin to
rise temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 60s and
a few areas near Grand Traverse Bay reaching 70 depending on the
coverage on the afternoon Cu field.
Tonight... Cloud cover will spread across eastern upper just after
sunset with the approaching height disturbance. Radiational cooling
will allow temperatures to fall efficiently to mid/upper 40s while
eastern upper will remain around 50 degrees. Weak moisture advection
into the northwoods tonight will return chances of some localized
patchy fog, favoring interior northern lower before winds pick up as
the approaching disturbance ramps up surface pressure gradient force
winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tuesday and Wednesday... A weak height disturbance currently
developing over the Dakotas will track across Lake Superior this
Tuesday. Enough forcing at the surface will deliver showers across
the eastern upper peninsula. Again, dynamics are not ideal for this
system along with the majority of rainfall being northwest of the
CWA, but showers will be observed across Chippewa and Mackinac
counties. Probabilities of QPF remaining between a trace to a tenth
is likely. Localized higher amount remain possible for locations
near Whitefish Point with some embedded convection, otherwise most
locations can expect mostly cloudy skies before this system tracks
toward Hudson Bay.
Thursday and Friday... Split flow continues to keep surface high
pressure and quiet condtions through the end of the week.
Temperatures will be at or slightly above climatological norms.
Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 70s with no expected
chances of precipitation until the weekend.
Saturday and Sunday Outlook... Embedded northern branch shortwave
troughing currently over the Gulf of Alaska will advect southeast,
reaching the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. Too early to
give details with regards to timing and intensity of potential
precip... but probabilities of some beneficial rain returning next
week continues to become more likely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with the
exception of some morning BR / FG (favoring CIU, PLN, and MBL). This
will quickly scour out 12-13z this morning, with cloud heights
generally hovering around 5,000ft through the rest of the morning
into the afternoon. Breezy SSW winds prevail late this morning into
the afternoon, with some gusts of 15-20kts. Winds taper a bit this
evening. VFR conditions prevail this evening into tonight.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ027>029-
     032>035-041.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion