Black Springs, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS65 KREV 241834
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1134 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Near to slightly above average temperatures continue through
  most of this weekend.
* Another weather system to brings shower and thunderstorm chances
  again tonight and tomorrow, mainly south of I-80.
* Another low pressure system early next week brings potential for
  cooler temperatures, increased shower chances, and breezy
  conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Enjoy the mostly sunny skies this afternoon as an incoming
subtropical low will be moving onshore from the West Coast into
the Great Basin tonight. This system brings back chances for
showers and thunderstorms into the forecast tonight.
The latest HREF members are highlighting areas south of I-80 for
the convective activity associated to this system. Portions of the
Sierra north of the interstate into Plumas county may see some
showers and a few isolated storms with less than 20% chance;
impacts should be minimal. South of the interstate, WPC has a
slight risk (~5%) for excessive rainfall. Watch out for localized
flash flooding and debris flows if there are long periods of heavy
rain in your vicinity. However, as mentioned earlier, the chance
is less than 5%. The main area of concern will be in the Eastern
Sierra over Mono Co.; that has the best chances for precipitation
with a 40-70% chance tomorrow afternoon.
This system will slowly migrate south on Friday and taking with it
most chances for precipitation, except for isolated portions of
far southern Mono county near the Sierra crest, where up to 10%
is possible. Otherwise, the rest of the region should be dry and
warm.
By Saturday, that hovering low will start to be absorbed by
another longwave trough descending from the Gulf of Alaska. So,
mostly warm and dry conditions persist. However, chances for
storms continue south of US-50. Those chances slowly increase in
areas to the north on Sunday as the low is pulled by the trough.
Early next week, the aforementioned upper trough should finally
push through. Ensemble data is agreeing on having a decent cool
down areawide starting Sunday with seasonal temperatures and
reaching below average temperatures by mid-week. This system also
brings more showers and thunderstorms plus gusty winds return to
the region too. Details to come in the next few days.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through tomorrow morning with light winds
and typical afternoon gusts up to 20 kts. Some overnight fog at
KTRK may appear, but will be gone by morning. KMMH has a 15-30%
chance of reaching MVFR conditions after 15Z tomorrow.
-HRICH/HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion