Bloomfield, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

339
FXUS63 KLMK 240652
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  A few strong storms and locally heavy rainfall expected through
   late this evening.
*  Additional rainfall amounts should range between 1 to 2.5 inches
   for most, although locally higher amounts are possible through
   late tonight.
*  Dry and increasingly warm this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Have a pretty complex and challenging 24-30 hours to get through as
a surface low slides into the lower Ohio/Wabash River Valleys ahead
of an amplified positive tilt trough axis. The end result, will be
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be
capable of localized heavy rainfall and a few strong or severe
storms. Currently, we have a few clusters of showers and storms
moving east of I-65 and across southern KY. These will put down some
brief heavy rainfall, and perhaps a few wind gusts, but nothing
severe expected. As we move deeper into the pre-dawn hours, the exit
region of a 60-80 knot upper jet will over spread our region, with a
20-25 knot low level jet responding appropriately. This increased
forcing and deep moisture transport is expected to increase coverage
and intensity of showers and storms between 07-12z. Overall deep
layer shear is expected to improve, and the shear profile may become
suitable for a few rotating storms. We`ve already seen some weak
rotation earlier this evening. Not too concerned about a tornado
threat given the lack of surface based instability, but will have to
watch any stronger updraft, especially if it is rotating. Will also
have to watch for training and locally heavy rainfall threats,
especially for areas that have already seen notable rainfall totals.
Good upper level divergence through the late morning into midday
will promote modest cyclogenesis somewhere over our just to the
north of our CWA, with the surface low/triple point over/near our
area. This will help establish a warm front over our area, which
will try to lift northward through the day. A weak warm sector is
expected over at least some of our area (likely Ohio River
southward). There could be a brief window around mid to late morning
where low level shear profiles could support a low end tornado
threat (assuming some near surface based instability can develop by
then), but overall this window appears pretty short and has little
confidence/model support. Pretty quickly surface winds veer to a SW
component as the surface low moves likely into southern IN. The end
result should be a less favorable low level hodograph, and more
focus on locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a small win threat
through the afternoon and evening.
Concern may continue to grow for some locally heavy
rainfall/training into the late evening/overnight as the trailing
cold front and approaching upper trough axis provide enough focused
forcing for widespread showers and storms. By this time, we`ll be
in the right entrance region of that upper jet, with the 20-25 knot
low level jet core pushing up through central and eastern KY. Should
be a pretty decent frontogenetical component with strong moisture
transport/forcing along and southeast of the Ohio River. A bit
concerned that an axis of heavy rainfall could set up there late
evening into tonight. If this become more apparent in the data, then
a Flood Watch may be justified. Overall, expecting an additional 1
to 2.5" of rain through late tonight, with locally higher amounts
certainly possible given the potential for training.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Thursday - Thursday Night...
Positively tilted upper trough axis will be poised to slide through
our area, however we`ll still have to deal with fairly widespread
coverage of showers and a few storms ahead of this feature on
Thursday. At the moment, looks like the best coverage will be along
and SE of the Ohio River, with a gradual drying trend from NW to SE
as we move through the day into Thursday night. Overall, QPF through
this period looks to be much lighter (.10" - .25"), and will likely
only fall in the beneficial category as we will still have some
recovery to do from the drought. Temperatures should be noticeably
cooler on Thursday, and only peaking in the 75 to 80 degree range
thanks to heavy sky cover and weak cool advection. Thursday night
lows will also be cooler, and back into the 55 to 60 degree range
for most.
Friday - Tuesday...
As we move into the weekend, the upper pattern has some interesting
evolutions worth noting. First off, the upper trough axis will have
pushed through our area with surface high pressure building in.
However, the based of that trough axis looks likely to close off
just to our south, and then wobble/meander there through the weekend
and into early next week. Still expecting mostly dry through the
weekend and beyond, but can`t completely ignore the occasional model
runs that through some QPF back our way from an Atlantic source, and
SE to E flow around the upper low positioned to our south. May have
to end up carrying some pops across our SE CWA at times through the
weekend, but for now we will continue to lean toward mostly dry and
increasingly warmer. Will also note that a couple of tropical
systems may get close enough to the closed upper low that they also
provide a bit of a deep moisture boost/fetch into our area around
the E/NE side of the upper low. On the other hand, have noted the
past couple of shifts that the flow around the upper low could
promote a downslope component off the Appalachians, and if so, the
QPF could be overdone given the potential for a dry downstream
shadow with that setup. Something to continue monitoring, and quite
a bit of uncertainty to weed through until then.
Highs on Friday/Saturday should mostly be in the upper 70s to around
80, and then pushing into the low and mid 80s by Sunday. Those temps
then continue into Monday/Tuesday. Low should continue mostly in the
mid to upper 50s, occasionally around 60 for this time period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Rounds of showers and storms continue today into tonight ahead of a
cold front and approaching upper level disturbance. Timing of any
one shower or storm is difficult, however chances will persist
through much of the day, so tried to nail down the best time of a t-
storm with Prob30 groups. Outside of that, look for steady SSE to
SSW winds for much of the day, before a shift to SW or even NW as
the cool front approaches from the NW later this evening into
tonight. Do expect some MVFR ceilings later this morning through
midday, before improvement back to VFR. Ceilings are then expected
to drop again later tonight, likely into the IFR range for LEX.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion