Braggs, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

924
FXUS64 KTSA 211459
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
959 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually wind down
   towards daybreak, focusing north of I-40. Storm activity will
   redevelop Sunday afternoon and evening across the area.
- Warm conditions continue through Monday, with temperatures then
   moderating into late week, falling slightly below normal.
- Additional daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into
   Wednesday or Thursday. There is a moderate chance of a more robust
   storm complex crossing the area from Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A convectively-generated wave over western/central OK this morning
will shift slowly east today and tonight. CAMs suggest shower and
storm coverage will increase as the day wears on, with some
locally heavy rainfall possible. Cloud cover will limit
instability over much of the region, with a possible exception
down closer to the Red River, where a greater potential for severe
weather exists. With the cloud cover, forecast highs were
adjusted downward from the model blend (NBM) closer to the middle
of the guidance envelope.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered storm activity north of I-40 this morning will gradually
wind down overnight as lingering instability is used up. The threat
of severe weather and flooding should also diminish over the next
few hours. Low temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60s for
most areas.
During the day Sunday storms will develop by the late morning or
afternoon, moving from west to east. Storm activity will then
gradually becoming confined to southeast OK and northwest AR by the
evening as a shortwave trough moves overhead. Severe weather is not
expected Sunday, but an isolated marginally severe storm is
possible. High temperatures will be cooler than yesterday for most
areas, generally in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
CAM/ensemble guidance is in disarray for Monday with a general
signal for continued activity, but little agreement on the details.
Took a broad brush approach and kept most of the day with slight-
chance PoPs, with a late morning to afternoon maximum for northwest
AR. Confidence is very low in the specifics. A more potent shortwave
will approach late Monday into Tuesday. This shortwave will have
better mid to upper level flow and decent diffluence aloft. Low
level moisture will be plentiful with sufficient instability in
place. These factors will support the potential for a more robust
complex or two of storms to move through. These storms may be
capable of severe weather impacts, including large hail and damaging
winds, but confidence is low on specifics at this time. Another
potential concern will be flooding rains if training storms develop
along a stalled frontal boundary. We will monitor this potential in
the days ahead.
The main trough axis will move east by Wednesday, with storm
activity trending down into Thursday. Temperatures will cool during
this period, with highs falling into the upper 70s or low 80s for
many areas. Low temperatures will settle into the mid 50s to low
60s. Ensemble guidance also shows drier air moving in, with dew
points dropping. It will not necessarily feel like fall, but
conditions will be noticeably cooler than what we`ve seen recently.
Dry weather will then last through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
across E OK and NW AR from later this morning through the
afternoon hours. Main impacts will be reduction in VSBY with any
thunderstorms. Thunder chances appear lower today than yesterday
so have opted to keep Prob30s for now. Showers could linger
across SE OK into the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise,
southerly winds around 10 knots will be common through the day
with mid and high cloud dominating through the period.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  67  86  70 /  50  50  30  70
FSM   89  69  85  71 /  40  40  60  60
MLC   86  71  88  73 /  50  40  40  50
BVO   80  64  84  65 /  50  50  30  70
FYV   84  65  81  66 /  40  40  60  70
BYV   84  65  80  65 /  50  40  60  70
MKO   84  68  85  70 /  50  50  40  60
MIO   82  65  82  66 /  60  50  40  70
F10   83  68  87  70 /  50  50  40  60
HHW   88  70  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion