Brainard, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS63 KOAX 201053
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing shower activity continues along a boundary extending
  west to east from Heartwell to Clarinda. Showers have
  developed along the boundary and trained eastward along the
  boundary.
- Patchy fog is expected, particularly for areas north of the boundary.
  Visibility may fall to one mile or less in some locations.
- A series of disturbances will move across the region this
  week, bringing some chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
  next best chance for rain begins Monday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A boundary is currently stalled across south-central and
southeastern Nebraska. For the past several hours, showers have
developed along the boundary and moved east. These showers have been
training across southern Seward, central Lancaster, southern Cass
(NE), Fremont, and Page counties. Pwat values are in the
1.0-1.1" range. Rivers and creeks in the area have not shown
significant rises and the ground in these areas is not currently
saturated, so at the present time, flooding is not an immediate
concern. However, the potential for some minor flooding should
storms continue to train will be something to monitor over the
next few hours.
In addition to the potential for precipitation, fog will be a
possibility for portions of northeastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
Light winds, residual moisture, and clear skies will help with
development in these areas. Visibilities may fall below one mile or
less in some locations, with locally dense fog possible.
The forecast period starts with split flow across the western and
central U.S. The southern split has a ridge axis over Colorado and
New Mexico with a trough off the coast of southern California. The
northern split has a ridge over the PACNW and a trough over
Nebraska, Missouri, and Illinois. Over the next few days, several
disturbances will move through the broader pattern, bringing a few
chances (20%) for showers and storms. The next best chance (30-60%)
for showers/storms will be Monday evening through Tuesday with
additional chances (20-30%) on Wednesday. This will be dependent on
the track and timing of a disturbance sliding into the region from
the Rockies. Uncertainty remains in the timing of the system. Models
have come into a little better agreement with the location, bringing
the system through extreme southwestern Nebraska and north central
Kansas. Temperatures will be primarily in the 70s and 80s each day
for highs with lows in the 50s and 60s.
Heading into the latter portions of the forecast, models are showing
continued split flow over the CONUS. A ridge is expected to shift
east over Nebraska and the Dakotas. Temperatures are currently
forecasted to be in the 70s for highs and the 50s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
KOFK/KOMA: VFR ceilings are currently in the forecast through
the TAF period. Added a brief mention of some patchy fog at KOFK
due to less cloud cover and light winds. Any fog should
dissipate by around 15Z. For the rest of the day, expect light
and variable winds. KOMA may have a few lower ceilings after
midnight.
KLNK: A line of showers has been impacting the terminal for the
past several hours with minor reductions to visibility at times.
The shower activity is expected to move out of the vicinity of
the terminal over the next 1-2 hours, or around/slightly after
the onset of the 12Z TAF period. Ceilings are expected to
improve slightly, remaining in VFR through the rest of the
period. Patchy fog may be possible once the showers move out,
however, confidence in this occurrence is low due to current
cloud cover and proximity to sunrise. For the rest of the day,
expect dry conditions and light and variable winds.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion