042 FXUS65 KCYS 011201 AFDCYSArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 601 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild to warm temperatures will continue through Friday, before a potent weather disturbance aloft and its associated cold front bring cooler and wetter weather for Saturday through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Today...Drier zonal flow aloft develops, producing a dry day, with temperatures about the same as yesterday, with 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius.
Thursday...A warming trend develops again as the flow aloft turns southwest, with 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius yielding maximum temperatures in the lower to mid 70s west of I-25, with upper 70s and 80s east of I-25.
Friday...Southwest flow aloft strengthens in advance of the potent shortwave trough aloft over eastern Utah. With a slight increase in 700 mb temperatures, highs will be slightly warmer. Looks like adequate low and mid level moisture to spark isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 234 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Saturday...The progressive shortwave trough aloft moves to eastern Wyoming in the afternoon, producing scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, in addition to cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Low and mid level gradients suggest a windy day for much of the forecast area.
Sunday...Strong southwest flow aloft prevails over cool surface high pressure producing low level upslope and extensive cloud cover. 700 mb temperatures near 0 Celsius will yield cool daytime high temperatures from the mid 50s to lower 60s. The lift produced by low level upslope and a weather disturbance aloft will help generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Monday...Cool surface high pressure across the western high plains will help keep cool low level upslope in place with maximum temperatures only in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Adequate low and mid level moisture will help produce isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers.
Tuesday...Weak ridging aloft develops. Expect a slow warming trend as the airmass moderates somewhat, though surface high pressure over the Northern High Plains states will keep cool air over our counties. With the lack of a lifting mechanism, showers will be more isolated compared to Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 558 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Westerly flow aloft will continue.
Wyoming TAFS...Mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will gust to 25 knots from 15Z to 23Z.
Nebraska TAFS...Mostly clear skies will prevail. Showers will be in the vicinity of Sidney until 14Z. Winds will gust to 32 knots at Sidney until 22Z, and to 25 knots at Chadron, Alliance and Scottsbluff from 15Z to 23Z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN
NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion