Brownton, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

301
FXUS63 KMPX 101936
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
236 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of fog expected overnight, though it should be
  less widespread and primarily confined to northeast MN and
  northwest WI.
- Temperatures will warm through the end of the week peaking in
  the mid to upper 80s on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Regional radar this afternoon shows that low level stratus has
quickly cleared, with diurnal cu taking its place. Most places
will stay dry through tonight, with only a low chance for
sprinkles closer to central WI. With winds remaining light in
addition to the clearing skies, our saturated airmass will
provide a favorable setup again for radiation fog overnight
into Thursday morning. It does not look to be as widespread, and
the highest confidence is primarily over northeast MN and
northwest WI. A Dense Fog Advisory may needed, though confidence
in the extent southwards is too low to issue at this time.
Our dry period should continue through at least Friday with
large scale ridging centered over the Plains. CAMs do hint at
the potential for a couple rounds of convection along the
ridge, though that should remain across NoDak and northern MN
either day. Highs in the 80s will be common this weekend, and it
may actually feel quite humid with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s.
It is looking more likely that a shortwave trough from the west
will start to break down our ridge by late this weekend. Though
there is no strong signal still, this will be our next window
to watch for active weather as southwesterly flow increases
aloft over the northern Plains. Highest PoPs come Sunday into
Monday as the associated surface low tracks northeast into
towards the Upper Midwest. That said, there is still quite a bit
of variability across long range guidance so chances are capped
at 30 to 40 percent. Near or slightly above normal temperatures
are expected to hold steady through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Low stratus has slowly begun to break apart and lift over the
last couple of hours. Still, isolated IFR to widespread MVFR
should persist into this afternoon until clouds finally scatter
enough to result in VFR late this afternoon into tonight.
However, most CAMs suggest fog will at least be a possibility
from 09-14Z Thursday morning. Have at least added a mention of
BR at all terminals during this time period. Greatest confidence
in dense fog looks to be at MKT and EAU where conditions could
fall to LIFR to even VLIFR. Expect another blanket of low
stratus (similar to this morning`s) to accompany the heaviest
fog Thursday morning. This stratus may be slow to break apart to
result in VFR by the end of the period. East-northeast winds
slow near or under 5 knots tonight, then turn southeast and
increase to 5-10 knots Thursday morning.
KMSP...MVFR should persist until around 21Z before clouds
finally lift and break apart enough for VFR to prevail. Have
included BR in the TAF for Thursday morning but fog potential
looks less favorable than Wednesday morning.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...CTG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion