Brushy Creek, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

689
FXUS64 KEWX 221051
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
551 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue until Wednesday.
- Confidence increasing in rain chances Wednesday and Thursday
  (currently 20-70%).
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper level ridge covers northern Mexico and the southwestern
US bringing northwesterly flow over Texas. High pressure over the
northern Gulf coast has the low level flow from the southeast.
The airmass has not changed much over the last 24 hours and is
warm and moist with temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s
and dewpoints from the upper 60s to lower 70s. An upper level
trough will move out of the Rockies into the plains during this
period and turn the flow over Texas to the west. The low level
flow will continue from the southeast reinforcing the warm, moist
airmass. There may be enough lift over the Coastal Plains to
generate isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms each
afternoon today and Tuesday. Elsewhere the upper ridge will
suppress any convection. High temperatures will increase a couple
of degrees today and Tuesday with continued warm advection. Highs
will be well above normal with some places south and southwest of
San Antonio reaching triple digits. Humidity will be high enough
over the Coastal Plains to send heat indices to near Heat Advisory
level Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A cold front will move through the Texas Panhandle into Central
Texas Tuesday night. With the approach of the front there will be
chances for convection spreading into our CWA from the north. The
front will move through our CWA Wednesday. This will bring
showers and thunderstorms through South-Central Texas with the
best chances will be during the afternoon Wednesday. Perceptual
water values will be near 2.0 inches ahead of the front, and we
could see some locations in the Coastal Plains get and inch or two
of rain Wednesday night. The front will stall somewhere near our
southern border and rain chances will continue Thursday. Friday
the front will dissipate and the upper trough will move to the
southeastern part of the country. This will bring dry weather back
to our area. Temperatures behind the front will drop back down to
near normal for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings continue to develop this morning mainly
impacting I-35 terminals but may expand towards KDRT in the next few
hours. Low clouds will scatter mid to late morning with VFR
conditions returning for the rest of the day. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm may develop east of I-35 terminals this afternoon or
early evening but dry conditions are forecast at terminals. South to
southeasterly wind will prevail under 12 knots but could see some
local gusts up to 20 knots in the late afternoon and evening. MVFR
ceilings are favored to develop along the I-35 corridor early
Tuesday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  98  76  92 /   0  10  30  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  98  75  93 /   0  10  20  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  75  93 /   0  10  20  60
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  72  86 /   0   0  40  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  98  78  94 /   0   0  10  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  97  74  91 /   0  10  40  70
Hondo Muni Airport             73  97  74  95 /   0   0  10  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  99  74  94 /   0  10  20  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  75  92 /   0  20  10  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  77  94 /   0  10  20  60
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  77  97 /   0  10  10  50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion