Bryant, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS64 KHUN 191922
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
222 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No significant changes to the forecast are needed with the
afternoon update. Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to
slowly move eastward across NW AL. SPC mesoanalysis shows much
less instability further east and therefore a weakening trend
should occur should storm push east of the interstate. Outflow
boundaries will be the features to watch for new convective
initiation later today.
Previous Discussion:
Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning across the
Dakotas with a cold front draped to its south across the Southern
Plains. To the east, a short wave is slowly forecast to shift
eastward into the TN Valley. By this afternoon, mostly sunny skies
will warm temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s resulting
in an unstable environment with sfc CAPE values increasing to
1000-1200 j/kg along and west of I-65. CAMs continue to show a low
chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms popping up closer to the
shortwave, primarily in NW AL and then weakening as they push
further to the east. The good news is that despite the
instability, severe storms are not forecast as shear is very low.
However, would not be surprised to see a strong storm capable of
gusty winds given an inverted-v vertical sounding.
After sunset, any remaining storms will quickly dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. It will be another mild night with
overnight lows only dropping down into the low to mid 60s. Calm
winds and mostly clear skies may result in some patchy fog
development just before sunrise. The most likely areas for fog
will be locations that get rainfall this afternoon and along area
bodies of water.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Not much change in the sensible weather pattern as we head through
the weekend and into the start of next week. A mid-level trough
axis remains stationary along the MS River with high pressure
centered over the Carolinas. With the local forecast area sitting
in between these two features, a warm and humid airmass will
remain in place bringing afternoon highs into the upper 80s to
lower 90s Saturday through Monday. Low chances (15-30%) for
diurnally driven thunderstorms are also forecast each afternoon.
While the coverage of storms is still uncertain, it appears the
most likely days to see better areal coverage for thunderstorms
would be Sunday and Monday as the aformentioned trough axis pushes
closer to the AL/MS state line.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The autumn season begins Monday afternoon around 119 PM Central
Time. By the time we reach the new work week, the weak troughing
pattern along the eastern half of the continent will actually
become some what of a broad zonal flow. While that occurs, a
synoptic system is forecast to form somewhere over the Front
Range and High Plains. Have to say somewhere, as the deterministic
models had a variety of solutions. By Thursday morning, the 12Z
GFS had a weaker upper low translating over the southern Great
Lakes, while the ECMWF at the same time had a deep closed low over
the Ozarks. The Canadian was showing just a weak wave over the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley. From the GFS/Canadian POV, a better
transport of lower level moisture from the Gulf of America should
bring chances for showers/thunderstorms for much of this period.
The ECMWF deeper low would bring much higher rain chances and
possibly strong storms should that solution occur.
Given the uncertainty, will stay with an ensemble/blend approach.
It for the last few runs have been going with mostly lower end
convection chances (20-30%) next week. Unseasonably warm conditions
should continue for the period. Low temperatures should range in
the 60s, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday/Tuesday,
then a tad cooler in the 80s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions with light winds will continue through the TAF
period. There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon,
especially west of I-65. Therefore added a tempo group at KMSL for
brief reductions in visibility and ceilings. While fog may form
overnight across northern Alabama, there is uncertainty in where
that occurs, hence left out any mention in this forecast.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion