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Bucks Landing, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS64 KLCH 130543
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1243 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm into the mid 90`s again today through the early part of next week as oppressive upper level ridge remains over the region.

- Upper wave moving across the central US may offer enough weakness overhead to allow a few isolated showers to form this afternoon and Sunday afternoon (around a 5 to 9 percent chance.) Otherwise, hot and dry.

- Lower than normal daytime humidity will keep heat indices capped in the upper 90s each day. Continue practicing heat safety for those outdoors working, at sporting practices, or otherwise being active outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

At the start of the period, upper level trof should be onshore at California and preparing to drop out of the Rocky Mountains. By midday, ridge over the forecast area is already feeling the influence from this trof and high pressure from 300 down through 850mb starts to relax. As a result of these relatively lower heights aloft, a widely scattered smattering of showers may develop across southwest Louisiana with a southwest motion. The only nod towards forecaster confidence that this may happen is because afternoon showers developed in central Louisiana this afternoon. So, all other conditions being similar Saturday... as subsidence backs off, a few strictly afternoon diurnal showers/very weak storms may develop. For now, a 5 to 10 percent chance of showers were included in the forecast this coming afternoon.

As surface-based high pressure shrinks inland, flow becomes more southeasterly and so a weak moisture return takes place into Sunday. Upper trof continues its march across the central Plains states and upper ridge has been shunted back to south central Texas.

Moisture return, even in its minimal nature, should bring about more widespread cloud cover. Another round of diurnally driven afternoon showers will be possible in coastal communities.

Upper trof washes out going into Monday. Guidance indicates an upper low backbuilds into the southeastern US. Cyclonic flow around this low should reinforce dry air return overhead. Surface high and upper ridge are forced back overtop the forecast area from the central and south central US in response to low in the southeast. Thusly, a return to hot and dry with quiet radar can be expected into Monday.

Above climo normal temps are expected thru the short term period. Highs in the mid to upper 90s will persist each day within the largely dry airmass.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

General persistence in the overall long wave pattern across the CONUS will maintain a relatively steady temperature profile across the region with highs situated into the mid to upper 90s and lows in the in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s with the cooler temps more aligned across our northern tier of counties and parishes. There will remain very few, isolated possibilities of pulse showers/storms at times across the period running early to mid-next week, although precip totals aren`t going to be very appreciable at this juncture since the signal denotes more widely scattered coverage. We`ll continue monitoring the progression of the pattern to the north as some guidance infers a potential weak shortwave trough cutting through the mid-Mississippi Valley by the latter half of next week. Depth and strength of the trough could bring a better chance of showers into at least the northern half of the CWA by that time frame, but models are not in agreement on the overall evolution leading to a relatively tame precip forecast when assessing the ensemble means. No matter what you look at, summer maintains its grip across the region with no true cold front in sight for the next 7+ days.

Temperatures will remain above average as highs average 5 to 7 degrees F above climo norms thru the period. However, due to lower humidity, daytime heat indices will top out in the mid to upper 90s each day.

Calhoun/Kleebauer

&&

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Dry airmass and high pressure in place should continue the persistent forecast of VFR conditions and variable daytime winds. However, upper trof swings across the central US today into Sunday causing a weakening of upper level high pressure. Moisture is also making a return at mid levels. This weakness and slight moisture return could allow some isolated showers to develop in the very late afternoon hours. However, forecaster confidence in this outcome is very low, so no mentions of convection were included in TAFs at this time.

Otherwise, northerly winds may develop first thing in the morning before giving way to southerlies with the diurnal seabreeze boundary.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Winds continue to be progged to prevail from the east through the period as high pressure continues ridging into the northwest Gulf. Periods of enhanced easterly flow and seas will develop over outer 20 to 60 nm waters as the gradient tightens with the passage of waves.

Dry air and high pressure will keep precipitation chances to a minimum.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Hot and dry conditions with breezy, variable winds to be expected today into the start of the work week. High pressure will remain over or near the region into the mid week, however, today into Sunday, a brief weakening of the ridge is expected to take place. Dry airmass should keep most rain chances to a minimum, but this weakness could allow for a few very widely scattered showers and storms to develop today and Sunday. Very low rainfall totals are anticipated with any cells that can develop. Mid to upper 90s are expected thru the mid week. Surface mixing is expected each afternoon with daytime RH minimums in the 25 to 40 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 95 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 93 73 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 LFT 94 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 93 73 91 72 / 10 0 10 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion

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