Burden, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

713
FXUS63 KICT 101110
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
610 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms possible this morning and into the
  afternoon hours with additional low chances on Thursday
  morning.
- Warming trend through the week and into the weekend.
- More storm chances late Saturday through Sunday with next
  frontal boundary.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Currently, the upper level ridge axis is situated just to our west
with troughs across the Great Lakes and the Pacific coast. A complex
of thunderstorms in southwest Kansas is feeding off of low level WAA
and is marching eastward early this morning. This MCS will continue
to progress along the nose of the LLJ with a slight southeasterly
motion, but a general weakening trend is anticipated as the
convection approaches south-central Kansas.
For the rest of today, this morning`s convection will leave a
remnant MCV across the area. This will be the focal point for
additional showers/storms through the late morning and into the
afternoon. Current thinking is this activity will not be very strong
as instability and shear will be lacking. As this feature pivots
over central and eastern Kansas, we could see some slow-moving
storms. With PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.5", heavy rain or
localized flooding would be the main concern. Model consensus sets
up this activity moreso across eastern Kansas, though a slightly
westward solution could place that heavy rainfall potential over
central Kansas who are still recovering from the flooding of a
couple days ago.
Temperatures will remain relatively moderated today with cloud cover
and possible precipitation limiting overall warming. Highs this
afternoon will warm into the lower to middle 80s. As we continue
through the end of the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the warming trend with
temperatures soaring past seasonal norms through the end of the week
and into Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
With the top of the ridge axis centered overhead through tomorrow,
we could see additional low rain chances tonight/Thursday morning as
another small perturbation in the pattern passes across the region.
Towards the end of the weekend, a deep, though not incredibly
strong, trough will shift into the Plains beginning on Saturday
night. A weak frontal boundary will pass through the Plains bringing
rain and thunderstorm chances to the area on Saturday night/Sunday
morning. The trough will displace the ridge further south and east
and will act to moderate our temperatures closer to normal for this
time of year with highs in the middle 80s expected for Sun-Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions across the area this morning. A few
showers/storms will move eastward across south-central and
southeastern Kansas this morning/afternoon with reduced vis
being the main operational concern. Southeasterly winds will
reach between 10-12 knots for our central Kansas sites this
afternoon. Light southeasterly winds are expected areawide
overnight.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion