Burns Junction, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

139
FXUS65 KBOI 261530
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
930 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.DISCUSSION...No updates.  Breezy west winds and about 10 degrees
cooler today behind the dry cold front that passed through overnight.
Clear and colder tonight, then sunny and warmer Saturday and most
of Sunday ahead of a strong cold front expected Monday. Current
forecast has a slight chance of showers late Sunday night which
looks early, but the main pcpn and cooling is still on for Monday.
Yesterday`s GFS had an even stronger cold front Tuesday night,
but it looks weaker now. On the other hand, today`s GFS keeps
the weaker frontal band nearly stationary Wednesday through
Thursday while continuing to drop pcpn along it. If that happens,
pcpn totals in sw Idaho could exceed 1.00 inch. However, ECM has
a much different solution at the same time, i.e., drier and
warmer zonal flow. We`ll need better model consensus before we
commit to a heavy rain event in our forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR, with gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold
front that passed through western ID overnight and early this
morning. Local blowing dust. Generally NW winds 10-20 kt.
Afternoon gusts to 30 kt in the Snake Basin between KMUO and
KJER.
KBOI...VFR. NW wind 10-20 kt until 27/00Z then decreasing
to light diurnal wind.
Weekend Outlook...VFR with gradually increasing WSW flow aloft
as a trough approaches the region Sunday afternoon. Surface
winds will be diurnally driven Saturday, becoming ESE area-wide
and increasing as the trough approaches.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...On the back side of a
dry cold front that is passing through this morning, gusts up
to 30-40 mph along ridges and in channeled valleys have been
observed, along with a steep drop in dew point (nearly 30
degrees).  Post-frontal gusts will continue through the day,
especially in the Snake Plain and highlands, and high temps will
be lower than previous days (mid 70s for lower elevations, mid
60s for higher elevations).
High pressure builds back into the region Friday night through
Sunday afternoon, leading to warming that takes us back up to
10 degrees above normal and clear skies with lighter winds.
However, a significant change in weather arrives Sunday evening
as a deep Alaskan low moves southward along the Canadian west
coast. Late Sunday will see increasing clouds and a 15-25%
chance of precipitation in SE Oregon and SW Idaho. This precip,
potentially enhanced by a shortwave and warm surface
temperatures, has a 10% chance of embedded thunderstorms. The
core of the low and cold frontal passage arrive in the long
term.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Guidance continues to remain
on track with a significant weather maker early to mid next week.
This change will arrive in the form of a deep Pacific trough of
low pressure, beginning late Monday and lingering into Wednesday.
This trough is expected to bring much lower temperatures and
the chance of significant precipitation to the region. Current
model and forecast predictions highlight over an inch of water
accumulation over the terrain of central Idaho and anywhere from
0.25 to 0.75 inches for valley locations. Guidance suggests a
45% chance of an inch or more of precipitation by midday
Wednesday over the mountains. Snow levels are expected to be
above 8000 feet. Uncertainty exists mainly in the amount of
precipitation to expect in lower valley locations. This is due
to the persistent southwest flow anticipated with the trough,
which may lead to significant shadowing across the valleys of
SE Oregon and SW Idaho. The mountain precipitation, especially
across central Idaho, looks more likely. Temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below normal will accompany the trough, with near normal
temperatures and dry conditions returning by late week as a low-
amplitude ridge builds over the region in the wake of the
trough.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....MC

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion