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Burnside, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

927
FXUS64 KLIX 211820
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 120 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

- Hot and mostly dry weather continues tonight through Tuesday.

- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with greater rainfall chances and more seasonable temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are forecast for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Tonight through Wednesday morning, the high pressure system will continue to break down Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will be a little increased as a result Monday and Tuesday afternoon with PoPs in the 20-30% range. Generally, these popup showers and storms are not expected to be severe. Some gusty winds (30-50mph) will be possible and frequent lightning. Overall in terms of areal coverage, it will still be mostly dry for the area with higher rain chances than there were this weekend as the ridge breaks down. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s and low 90s with low temperatures in the low 70s. MSW

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.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Wednesday into Thursday, a weak upper level trough is expected to move through the area slowly. There is still a lot of model uncertainty right now on the timing and how long the system will linger or push through the area. Regardless, rain chances will be increased as it moves through Wednesday into Thursday. How quickly the system moves will impact any potential impacts. If it is a slower system, there will be the chance for some localized to minor flash flooding concerns. If it pushes through more quickly, then there will likely not be a concern for any flash flooding issues. We will have to keep monitoring for changes in the models over the next few days to get a better indication of this system.

Once the weak front pushes through the area, conditions should be fairly dry on the backside, mainly Friday through Sunday. Temperatures should be quite pleasant for this time of year as well with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. It should be a really nice weekend weather wise if we can get this front to push through the area fully. MSW

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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period for most area airports. KMCB will have some dense fog, which will drop ceilings and visibilities to IFR and LIFR conditions for a few hours near daybreak tomorrow. Prob30 groups are in the forecast for nearby showers expected at KHUM for tomorrow afternoon, which will lower ceilings and visibilities to MVFR conditions. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be possible at all area airports throughout the forecast. MSW

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.MARINE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Fairly calm conditions due to a weak ridge of high pressure over the area through today. This will keep winds light and waves and seas nearly calm. The high will pull to the east early this week, and a more persistent southerly wind of around 10 knots and waves and seas of 1 to 2 feet will be in place. Showers and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase during the upcoming workweek. Expected locally higher winds and seas around any convection that develops.

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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 89 68 91 / 0 20 0 20 BTR 70 91 69 93 / 10 40 0 30 ASD 69 89 69 90 / 0 20 0 20 MSY 75 92 75 93 / 0 30 0 20 GPT 72 87 72 88 / 0 10 0 10 PQL 69 89 68 90 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW LONG TERM....MSW AVIATION...MSW MARINE...MSW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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