Burnside, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

927
FXUS64 KLIX 211820
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
120 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
- Hot and mostly dry weather continues tonight through Tuesday.
- Next week looks to be more unsettled, with greater rainfall
   chances and more seasonable temperatures, especially Wednesday
   and Thursday.
- Cooler temperatures and drier conditions are forecast for the
   upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Tonight through Wednesday morning, the high pressure system will
continue to break down Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will be a
little increased as a result Monday and Tuesday afternoon with
PoPs in the 20-30% range. Generally, these popup showers and
storms are not expected to be severe. Some gusty winds (30-50mph)
will be possible and frequent lightning. Overall in terms of
areal coverage, it will still be mostly dry for the area with
higher rain chances than there were this weekend as the ridge
breaks down. High temperatures are forecast in the upper 80s and
low 90s with low temperatures in the low 70s. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Wednesday into Thursday, a weak upper level trough is expected to
move through the area slowly. There is still a lot of model
uncertainty right now on the timing and how long the system will
linger or push through the area. Regardless, rain chances will be
increased as it moves through Wednesday into Thursday. How quickly
the system moves will impact any potential impacts. If it is a
slower system, there will be the chance for some localized to
minor flash flooding concerns. If it pushes through more quickly,
then there will likely not be a concern for any flash flooding
issues. We will have to keep monitoring for changes in the models
over the next few days to get a better indication of this system.
Once the weak front pushes through the area, conditions should be
fairly dry on the backside, mainly Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures should be quite pleasant for this time of year as
well with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. It should
be a really nice weekend weather wise if we can get this front to
push through the area fully. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period for most area airports. KMCB will have
some dense fog, which will drop ceilings and visibilities to IFR
and LIFR conditions for a few hours near daybreak tomorrow. Prob30
groups are in the forecast for nearby showers expected at KHUM
for tomorrow afternoon, which will lower ceilings and visibilities
to MVFR conditions. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be
possible at all area airports throughout the forecast. MSW
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fairly calm conditions due to a weak ridge of high pressure over the
area through today.  This will keep winds light and waves and seas
nearly calm. The high will pull to the east early this week, and a
more persistent southerly wind of around 10 knots and waves and seas
of 1 to 2 feet will be in place. Showers and thunderstorm chances
will gradually increase during the upcoming workweek. Expected
locally higher winds and seas around any convection that develops.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  68  91 /   0  20   0  20
BTR  70  91  69  93 /  10  40   0  30
ASD  69  89  69  90 /   0  20   0  20
MSY  75  92  75  93 /   0  30   0  20
GPT  72  87  72  88 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  69  89  68  90 /   0  10   0  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion