Burnt Ranch, California Weather Forecast Discussion

643
FXUS66 KEKA 220803
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
103 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will gradually build in Sunday
through Tuesday. A troughing pattern could emerge by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue to push into the region
early this week allowing interior highs to crest back into the
90s with warmer interior valleys potentially getting into the low
100s by Tuesday. The marine layer onshore will likely become more
diurnal with better clearing in the afternoon, but with shallow
fog and stratus overnight, especially in wind protected areas such
as Humboldt Bay.
A closed low pressure system is forecast to approach central and
southern California by mid week. Recent model guidance indicate a
10 to 20 percent chance of wetting rain for Lake and Mendocino
counties by Wednesday afternoon. However, there has been decent
forecast uncertainty with how this closed low will affect
Northwest California.
The impacts of where this closed low ends up positioned still has
a degree of uncertain. While moderated temperature and greater
cloud cover are a near certainty, there is wide disagreement for
rain potential. While the low will pull up moisture form the
south, the general northeast flow around the low will not be
favorable for widespread wetting rain. Showers that do form will
most likely be around the rim of the Sacramento Valley where the
wind best aligns with topography. The vast majority of models
suggest a cooler and more moist pattern through the end of the
month, with long range predictions of above normal precipitation.
/JHW /EYS
&&
.AVIATION...6Z TAFs...A weak front passed Sunday and deepened the
marine layer before it further compressed again. This also weakened
the low level inversion, and nighttime microphysics imagery showed
only patchy stratus Sunday night. The stratus is expanding and LIFR
conditions are very probable (50-60%) to return to the coastal
terminals. Fog visibilities are also possible (35%). Confidence is
low on the duration of fog given the fluctuations in the marine
layer depth. High pressure will build in Monday and this will
contribute to a strengthening inversion. Model guidance clears out
the stratus completely by Monday afternoon, but the strengthening
inversion may hold it in longer than forecast, particularly around
Humboldt Bay. Inland terminals including UKI will remain VFR through
Monday. Once cleared out, the stratus currently looks to be very
slow to return, potentially after 6Z Tuesday. Chances for IFR to
LIFR are higher earlier at CEC, reaching 50% by 3Z.
&&
.MARINE...Building offshore high pressure is strengthening
northerly winds Sunday night. Northerly winds and steep wind waves
will continue to build through the day on Monday. Small Craft
Advisories are active for all zones except the northern inner zone
450. Steep seas will likely propagate creating more briefer periods
of advisory level conditions Monday afternoon into Monday night in
zone 450. An advisory may need to be included in this zone if seas
come in larger than forecast. A few gale gusts >35kt are probable in
expansion fans that shed off Cape Mendo and Cape Blanco, especially
Monday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, HREF chances for
gale gusts are about 70% in the lee of Cape Mendo and 50% for the
northern outer waters. Seas will respond to these stronger
northerlies with wind waves building up to 7-9 ft by Monday
afternoon and evening as a mid period NW swell around 6 ft at 12
seconds builds. These two wave groups will combine into significant
wave heights around 10-12 feet. A Northeast Pacific trough will
weaken the pressure gradient and winds and seas will lower Tuesday
through Wednesday. Northerly winds look to increase again starting
Thursday. NBM holds a 40% for gale strength gusts on Friday, at
least around Cape Mendocino.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building early this week will
quickly warm and dry conditions. Highs will likely peak Tuesday
with the hottest valley just shy of 100 and min RH in the upper
teens. Northeast afternoon winds will also be slightly enhanced
Monday and Tuesday afternoon around the rim of the Sacramento
Valley with some gusts in Lake County likely up to 20 mph.
Conditions will slightly ease (particularly daytime RH) Wednesday
and beyond. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
Mendocino and Lake Counties on Wednesday. /JHW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion