Busby, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

928
FXUS65 KBYZ 200816
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
216 AM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Localized fog over far eastern Montana this morning.
- Dry and warmer conditions into Sunday.
- Weather system late Sunday into Monday brings chance of
  precipitation (20 to 85 percent), cooler temperatures, and gusty
  northwest winds to the region.
- Warmer and drier conditions return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...
Localized fog is forecast this morning over far eastern Montana.
At this time, conditions are most favorable around and east of
Fallon and Carter Counties. Any fog that does develop should lift
around 9AM. Warmer and dry conditions will then prevail into
Sunday as low amplitude ridging builds over the region. Look for
high temperatures to be in the 70s and 80s today and Sunday.
Later Sunday into Monday, a weather system and associated cold
front will bring the chance of precipitation (20 to 85 percent,
greatest over the mountains and foothills), cooler temperatures,
and gusty northwest winds back to the region. Look for the chance
of precipitation to increase over south- central Montana as early
as Sunday afternoon and evening before spreading east through the
region late Sunday into Monday. With this activity, thunderstorms
capable of producing brief heavy rainfall and occasional gusty
winds are possible, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. As
far as potential precipitation amounts go, ensembles continue to
show little rainfall for areas around Miles City and Baker, but
have a tenth to a couple tenths of an inch of precipitation for
south- central Montana and northern Wyoming. While thunderstorms
could produce locally heavier rainfall, the National Blend of
Models continues to show only a low to moderate chance of seeing
more than a half inch of precipitation over the mountains and
foothills (20 to 55 percent chance). Downslope northwesterly winds
behind the front may also reduce the amount of precipitation that
is seen over the plains just east of the mountains, so will have
to see how things trend once high resolution models get into
range. While the majority of the precipitation with this system
will be rain, snow levels are expected to drop around 9,000 to
10,000 feet on Monday. Therefore, light accumulations of wet snow
are possible (40 to 85 percent) mainly over the higher peaks of
the Absaroka- Beartooth Mountains, and also the Bighorn and Crazy
Mountains, on Monday. Those with recreation or travel plans in the
mountains, including over the Beartooth Highway where there is a
70 percent chance of seeing snow, should prepare for wintry
impacts during this time. Outside of the precipitation,
temperatures Monday will be much cooler than Sunday with highs in
the 60s to 70 degrees, which is very fitting for the first day of
astronomical fall. Breezy northwesterly winds with gusts around 20
to 35 mph will also occur along and behind the front late Sunday
into Monday.
Tuesday now looks like a transition day towards warmer and dry as
upper level ridging beings to build back in over the region. With
this ridging, look for warm, above normal temperatures and mostly
dry conditions to prevail into the second half of the work week.
Arends
.AVIATION...
Confidence is high (>60% chance) for an area of fog/stratus to
impact far southeast MT early this morning (09-15z). IFR or lower
is expected, and fog may spread far enough north to include K97M &
KBHK. This will need to be monitored. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
over the next 24 hours under strong high pressure aloft. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 055/085 055/067 046/075 049/082 053/081 051/077
    0/U 00/U    55/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 082 047/080 044/064 038/075 044/082 047/080 045/076
    0/U 02/T    84/W    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U
HDN 083 050/086 053/068 043/075 044/083 046/083 047/078
    0/U 00/U    45/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 080 050/086 053/069 046/075 048/082 050/082 050/078
    0/U 00/U    13/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 076 050/084 054/066 048/070 048/078 051/079 050/077
    0/U 00/U    14/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
BHK 076 046/084 049/070 045/074 046/079 048/080 047/076
    0/U 00/U    02/W    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
SHR 079 048/083 048/063 041/072 041/079 045/080 046/077
    0/B 00/U    37/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion