Bustamante, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

558
FXUS64 KBRO 270337
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1037 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Ridging aloft is likely to lead to generally drier conditions
   throughout the forecast period, aside from slightly elevated
   chances early in the week and again later in the work week into
   next weekend.
- During the periods of unsettled weather, the highest rain
   chances are likely to be closer to the immediate Gulf coast as
   showers and/or thunderstorms expand inland along the afternoon
   seabreeze boundary, remaining mostly east of US 281/I-69 C.
- Near average high and low temperatures continue along with
   mainly minor (level 1 of 4) heat risks, though pockets of
   moderate (level 2 of 4) are possible next Wednesday and
   Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Ridging aloft from a building high pressure over northeastern Mexico
is expected to keep dry conditions (less than 10% PoP`s) across most
of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today through the
daytime tomorrow, outside of a low (15-20%) chance of rain for
southern portions of Cameron County tomorrow afternoon. Late
tomorrow night through Monday night, a low (15-30%) chance of
showers develops and continues across coastal areas in response to
weak mid-level disturbances passing over southern-central Texas,
expanding inland along the seabreeze boundary throughout Monday
afternoon, remaining mostly east of US-281/I-69 C, with the highest
PoP`s closer to the coast. Following, ridging aloft enhances again
as a mid-level high expands over northwestern Mexico, causing
probabilities of rain to decrease from a low (15-20%) chance on
Tuesday afternoon across portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley to
a less than 15% chance for Wednesday and Thursday. PoP`s look to
increase again later in the work week and into next weekend as a
trough over the eastern CONUS extends southwestward into the
Southern Plains, leading to 20-30% PoP`s along the afternoon
seabreeze on Friday and Saturday.
High temperatures are likely to remain near average, warming to
slightly above normal throughout the later part of this upcoming
week as ridging aloft decreases cloud coverage with inland highs
increasing from low/mid 90`s over the weekend to mid/upper 90`s by
Wednesday. Highs in the mid 80`s persist along the immediate
coast. Mostly minor (level 1 of 4) heat risks continue each day,
though pockets of moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risks are possible
across the upper Rio Grande Valley and the Rio Grande Plains on
Wednesday and Thursday. Average overnight lows are expected to
continue, falling to the upper 60`s/low 70`s inland and upper 70`s
along the immediate coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions continue throughout the TAF cycle along with dry
weather. Gentle easterly winds this evening become light and
variable to calm overnight before gentle east-northeasterly winds
return by the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Favorable marine conditions continue as gentle to moderate
northeasterly to easterly winds result in slight (1-2 feet) seas. A
low to medium (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms returns
tomorrow, increasing to a low to medium (20-40%) late tomorrow night
through Monday night with additional chances possible throughout the
remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  91  72  89 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN               71  94  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 75  97  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  97  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  78  86 /  10   0  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     75  89  73  88 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion