Byron, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

500
FXUS63 KGID 201123
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog this morning. Highs in the 70s today with light winds.
- Only a low chance for a few thunderstorms late tonight into
  Sunday morning. Severe weather is not expected.
- Warmer on Sunday and Monday
- Better thunderstorm chance (possibly some severe) return
  Monday evening and continue into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Some spotty showers persist over eastern parts of the area as of
330am, but this activity is waning and should exit the area
entirely by sunrise. As this departs, we are watching for fog to
develop over central Nebraska. This has been well advertised by
the near-term CAMs, although it has gotten off to a bit of a
slow start...likely because of lingering showers/cloud cover and
a few high clouds streaming in from the west. At least
localized dense fog remains possible through morning, although
confidence in location/coverage remains on the lower side.
As fog dissipates, a very day is on-tap for late September.
Surface winds remain light, and high temps climb only into the
70s...around 5 degrees below our climatological normal. A few
may develop late tonight into Sunday morning, although most
locations will remain dry. The most favored area is portions of
northern Kansas, although there have been some hints (mainly
from the HRRR) that a few weakening showers could move out of
the Sandhills and into central Nebraska Sunday morning as well.
Otherwise, we will see warming and mostly dry conditions for
Sunday and Monday. Highs return to the 80s area-wide on Monday
ahead of our next upper low.
The arrival of this system will bring a good chance (50-60%) for
thunderstorms to the area Monday evening into Monday night (with
some storms possibly initiating late Monday afternoon).
Convective parameters are favorable for at least a few strong to
severe storms, and the entire area is in a Day 3 "Marginal"
Risk.
Rain/t-storm chances linger on Tuesday, Tuesday night, and
possibly even into Wednesday, although the severe threat will
likely diminish thanks to cooler air behind a cold front.
Global models differ with how they handle the progression of
this system and overall upper-level pattern for the end of next
week. But the general consensus is that drier conditions return
Thursday-Saturday the following weekend as this system pushes
to our east.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Fog has been more patchy than previously expected this morning.
That said, satellite does show a very small area of fog
expanding westward towards GRI which could result in IFR
vis/ceilings through 15Z. EAR is less likely to be impacted as
more high clouds move in from the west.
Winds today remain light/variable today through tonight.
There is a low chance (20-30%) for IFR ceilings/vis again Sunday
morning...right near the end of this TAF period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion