Caddo Gap, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

271
FXUS64 KLZK 122332
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
632 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
-Dominant upper level ridge will persist over Arkansas leading
 above average temperatures and below average chances for
 precipitation for the majority of the forecast period.
-An upper level trough will approach the Central Plains late next
 week and bring a low-end chance of precipitation to northern Arkansas,
 but model guidance confidence remains low in relation to this
 event.
-Fair, dry, and above average temperatures for mid-Sptember will
 continue to be the theme of the forecast period.
-Expect the worsening of drought conditions over the next week as
 hot and dry conditions have a high confidence of persisting over
 the next seven days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
The center of a region of upper lvl ridging will slide eastward from
over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS to over the Mid-South
region of the CONUS transitioning into next week. In response, an
overall warming trend will commence across the CWA and state of
Arkansas for the duration of the forecast period.
Expect temperatures to slowly increase through the forecast period.
High temperatures across a few locations into this weekend and
remaining into next week will reach the mid to upper 90s across a
large portion of Arkansas. Heat index values will increase slightly
to values at or just slightly below 100 degrees; the dry air-mass in
place will keep heat index values from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, but these elevated values should be taken into
consideration, especially if outdoors for an appreciable amount of
time during the max heating of the day.
Late next week, a weak upper lvl trof will approach the region, this
is at the end of the forecast period and model guidance has deemed
this feature with low confidence in terms of placement and
intensity. If this low chance of PoPs does come into fruition,
rainfall would be isolated and rainfall totals would be limited.
A concern over the next seven days across the CWA and state of
Arkansas will be the worsening drought conditions. A combination of
hot and dry weather conditions will continue to dry out fuels across
the state and contribute to an overall greater risk of grassfire and
wildfire danger.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conds are expected through much of the period, with some
patchy overnight FG possible at KHOT and KADF reducing VIS`bys to
lower-end MVFR at times. Conds should improve on Sat with
scattered daytime Cu developing. Winds should be light, S/SW at
less than 10 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  96  67  96 /   0  20   0   0
Camden AR         67  96  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       68  93  67  93 /   0  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    69  96  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  70  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     70  96  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      67  95  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  67  97  67  96 /   0  20   0   0
Newport AR        69  96  68  96 /   0  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  96  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   69  97  69  95 /   0  20   0   0
Searcy AR         67  96  67  95 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      69  95  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion