Cairo, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

601
FXUS63 KGID 230037
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
737 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...Aviation and Short Term Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of
  the local area through the early evening hours.
- Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly this evening
  and continue into the overnight hours. Some of these storms
  could become severe...especially between the hours of 6pm to
  2am.
- Continued showers and non-severe storms are anticipated
  Tuesday and Tuesday night...gradually drying out from north to
  south.
- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures return to the local
  area Wednesday, with above normal temperatures and dry weather
  anticipated Thursday through Monday. Normal high temperatures
  for the end of September run generally in the lower to
  mid-70s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
-- Some fresh thoughts regarding thunderstorm/severe storm
 potential through the rest of tonight:
As of this writing, only spotty/weak/light showers have
developed within our forecast area (CWA) this evening. Although
there was always a small chance that more robust thunderstorm
activity could have gotten going before dark, it`s now
increasingly clear that this was not "meant to be"...possibly
due to in part to an expansive cirrus shield that moved in
overhead helping allow weak capping to hold to more lower-
level/surface-based parcels.
That being said, over the next 2-4 hours, we should start
seeing at least SOME semblance of an uptick in thunderstorm
activity, due to a combo of: 1) the upper shortwave trough
currently still back west over CO ejecting out more into our
area...2) an uptick in a southwesterly low level jet to around
30-40KT, helping to force slightly-elevated parcels to realize
fairly healthy instability/CAPE of at least 1500-2500 J/kg. That
being said, deep-layer/effective wind shear is on the low-end
of what we would normally see for "higher-end" severe (only
around 30KT and if anything perhaps expected to decrease further
through the night).
The net result is a somewhat murky/uncertain convective
situation, as we could see a quick uptick in activity in the
8-11 PM time frame with a few storms possibly becoming severe
fairly quickly (hail up to around ping pong ball size and/or
winds to around 60 MPH)...probably most favored within our KS
zones along with Nebraska counties east of Hwy 281. However,
following that initial uptick, we could subsequently see a
fairly rapid decline in intensity toward/after midnight as
elevated instability steadily wanes and deep-shear further
decreases. The net result would be a transition into more of a
"multicell mess", with only transient heavy rain/small rain and
possibly a localized flooding risk.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A few light showers and sprinkles impacted parts of the local
area this morning. This activity has since fallen apart as it
tracked east, with some thunderstorm development this afternoon
along a boundary across northwestern Kansas. Expect this
activity to continue to spread east and impact parts of Rooks
and Osborne counties late this afternoon, with activity becoming
more widespread this evening. The uptick in activity will be
due to an upper level shortwave rounding the trough across the
central Rockies, which should result in fairly widespread
coverage of storms initially across Kansas this evening, and
filling in across the entire forecast area overnight. Given the
available instability and modest deep layered shear, some strong
to severe thunderstorms can be expected through around 1-2 AM,
when instability really begins to wane. Correspondingly much of
the local area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather
from SPC with a sliver of the area mainly east of Highway 81 in
a slight risk for severe weather tonight. Large hail and wind
gusts 60+ MPH will be the main concerns.
While forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
into the daytime hours Tuesday, with minimal instability, more
showers than thunderstorms are anticipated with no severe
weather being advertised. Additionally, with a weak front moving
in from the north along with ample cloud cover and occasional
unsettled weather, a notably cooler day is anticipated, with
high temperatures possibly not climbing out of the 60s in spots.
Thereafter, temperatures will begin a gradual upward climb as
high pressure aloft builds back across the plains with a fairly
high confidence dry pattern noted through the remainder of the
forecast period. While not overly warm, temperatures will likely
reach the low to possibly mid 80s Thursday through Monday, which
will be about 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
High confidence in VFR conditions (and probably thunderstorm-
free weather) these first 3-6 hours, but then increasing chances
for showers/thunderstorms beyond around 06Z, followed by
increasing chances for sub-VFR ceiling/visibility (most likely
MVFR but perhaps brief/transient IFR) during the latter half of
the period (mainly after 12Z...Tuesday daytime). While at least
intermittent showers/weak thunderstorms are likely through much
of the period, a return to at least low-end VFR ceiling is
certainly possible late in the period (by around 21Z), although
this is not reflected in current TAFs.
As for winds, outside of any possible convective outflow, winds
are not expected to be a significant issue. Through most of the
night speeds should average around 7KT-or-less with direction
becoming overall-variable. Then as a better-defined cold front
passes through toward/after sunrise, a more consistent north-
northeasterly wind will kick in with gusts up to around 17KT
likely much of the daytime Tuesday.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion