Carlton, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

629
FXUS66 KOTX 140610
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1110 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and showery Sunday into Monday.
- Areas of smoke and haze persist through the weekend,
  especially near wildfires.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
The next weather system arrives Sunday bringing cooler
temperatures and chances for widespread precipitaiton. Areas of
smoke and haze are expected to continue through at least the
weekend, especially near wildfires. Warm temperatures return for
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: Today, temperatures will be in the
mid-80s, with lows in the high 50s. Light showers and a 10-15
percent chance of thunderstorms are anticipated through the
evening in Central Idaho, focused on Shoshone County, with a
couple convective cells already popping up. Tomorrow, a low
pressure system sitting off the PNW coast will move in, bringing
a cold front with it. This will yield rain, gusty winds, and a
significant temperature drop throughout much of the area.
Temperatures will drop nearly 20 degrees between today and
tomorrow, with high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s. As
the front moves through, Moses Lake and Wenatchee will be first
to see the rain, and then it will move through the rest of
central and eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Current
24-hour NBM probabilities show a 35 percent chance or higher of
a wetting rain (0.10 inches or more) throughout most of the area
from early Sunday through early Monday. In fact, apart from the
Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau, Moses Lake, and upper Columbia
Basin areas, there is a 15-25 percent chance of 0.25 inches of
rain from Sunday through Monday. Unsurprisingly, PWATs surge to
150-200 percent of normal during this time. Thunderstorm chances
through tomorrow and Monday are low, with only mountain areas
seeing a 10 percent chance or higher. With this front, there
will be an uptick in westerly winds Sunday into Monday, with
some gusts up to 25 mph. Overall, this will be a much needed wet
system, especially considering some areas are still under an
Air Quality Alert for wildfire smoke.
Monday night through Friday: Monday night into Tuesday, the low
pressure system will fill and a ridge will begin building over
the area. The aforementioned dip down into temperatures in the
60s will be very short lived, as temperatures will be in the low
70s by Monday, warming back up into the 80s by Wednesday as the
ridge continues to strengthen. Despite PWATs still being
100-150 percent of normal, chances for showers are mostly
confined to the mountains, and even those accumulations will be
less than 0.10 inches. Relative humidity recoveries will begin
declining through the week. Clusters show continued higher
heights and warming Wednesday through Thursday, with signals of
a low pressure system off the PNW coast on Thursday. However,
after day four, cluster agreement is very poor on how the low
will evolve, with half the clusters showing the low rapidly
weakening and warmer and drier conditions prevailing with higher
heights, and the other half showing a chance for cooler and
unsettled weather. Cluster consensus varies even further as we
move into the end of the work week and into next weekend, so we
will need to keep an eye on the extended forecast. /AS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Clouds will increase tonight ahead of an approaching
cold front, with VFR conditions expected through the night.
Precipitation looks to begin around 12Z around MWH and
spread to the northeast through the morning. Models currently
have precipitation beginning at KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE between
14Z-17Z. Ceilings will initially be VFR at the onset of
precipitation, then begin to lower through the morning. There
is a 40-50% chance for MVFR ceilings at KGEG/KSFF between 18-22Z
and at KCOE between 20-00Z with steadier showers. Winds will
pick up from the southwest with the onset of precipitation with
gusts 15-25kts. Models show afternoon convective showers
developing in the afternoon that brings a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms across southeast Washington and the southern Idaho
Panhandle that includes KPUW/KLWS, but the probability is too
low at this moment to include it in the TAF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions before 12Z. Moderate
confidence in MVFR conditions with rain at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE and
low confidence at KPUW/KLWS with rain. Low confidence in
thunderstorms at TAF sites Sunday afternoon and evening.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        84  57  68  51  73  49 /   0   0  70  50  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  83  58  68  52  71  50 /   0   0  60  60  20   0
Pullman        81  53  64  45  68  44 /   0   0  80  60  10   0
Lewiston       85  63  71  55  73  53 /   0   0  80  60  10   0
Colville       84  47  71  42  74  40 /   0   0  70  60  30   0
Sandpoint      82  51  70  48  68  46 /  10   0  60  70  50  10
Kellogg        80  58  68  52  65  50 /  10   0  60  80  40  10
Moses Lake     85  56  74  48  75  48 /   0  10  60  20   0   0
Wenatchee      83  61  73  53  76  55 /   0  10  60  20   0   0
Omak           86  58  75  52  80  52 /   0   0  60  30  10   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for Central Chelan
     County-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Wenatchee
     Area-Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion