Cascade, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS61 KRNK 101743
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil early autumn weather is expected for the
remainder of the week as a strong high pressure system remains
over the region. Clouds may creep into parts of the piedmont
from a disturbance along the coast, but overall, expecting a
period of comfortable weather with mild afternoon temperatures
and a notable cool crisp feel to the air during the early
mornings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1) Fair weather aside from clouds over the Piedmont.
Tranquil weather for the most part. There is a disturbance along
the Mid-Atlantic coast with clouds being cast as far west as
the piedmont, otherwise no significant weather concerns.
Persistence seems to be the best forecast per stable conditions.
Basically running with similar numbers with respect to highs and
lows...maybe a degree or two warmer each forecast period but
nothing noteworthy. Slight uptick in dewpoints for the piedmont
should keep readings a little milder there at night, but dry
airmass over the mountains should provide for good overnight
radiational cooling. Looking at 30s again for Burkes Garden and
the elevated mountain valleys...40s for the New River and
Greenbrier Valleys and 50s east of the Blue Ridge per higher
dewpoints there. Highs Thursday expected to be in the 70s to
around 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Message:
1. Stretch of dry and quiet weather with warm afternoons and cool
mornings continues.
Overall, the short term forecast period will remain very quiet, as
high pressure holds fast over the Mid Atlantic, and wedges against
the mountains. A 500mb ridge will develop over the central US by the
end of the work week, and start to expand eastward, pushing the
trough farther east. Increasing heights over the area will start
temperatures on a slight warming trend, though calm winds and clear
skies overnight will lead to good radiational cooling, and cool
nights for the area. Easterly onshore flow will advect some moisture
in from the Atlantic, and so will see dewpoints trend upward a few
degrees, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Otherwise, subsidence from
the high will keep precipitation chances minimal through the period.
Morning fog in the valleys and along the rivers will be possible
each morning, mixing out after the inversion breaks.
Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area,
hovering right around to up to 3 degrees above seasonal normals. Low
temperatures will range from the low 40s to mid 50s, warmer across
the Piedmont, and the coolest temperatures in the elevated mountain
valleys. Burkes Garden VA has been in the low 30s for the past few
mornings, and so may see forecast low temperatures decrease a few
degrees in subsequent forecast updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Mostly dry weather.
2. Temperatures trend a few degrees warmer.
An upper low will drop into the northeastern US over the weekend,
while the more broad 500mb trough deepens, pushing a cold front
through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast, bringing some
precipitation to those regions. Long range models are showing some
disagreement in how far south the precipitation will spread, some
bringing light rain showers into the northern parts of the forecast
area, but with high pressure at the surface and a dry airmass over
the region, confidence is higher that the forecast will remain dry
for most. Beyond the weekend, high pressure follows the
aforementioned system, and reinforces the wedge pattern into the
beginning of next week.
Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer Monday, with highs in
the low to mid 80s in the Piedmont, and mid to upper 70s in the
west. Overnight low will start to moderate as the high pressure
weakens some, back into the mid to upper 50s areawide, touching the
60s in parts of the Piedmont and Southside VA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected across the vast majority of the
region through the valid TAF forecast period. Will see some BKN
VFR cigs at LYH/DAN in the 4-6kft range. Fog may impact LWB/BCB
between 09Z-12Z Thursday.
Forecast confidence is high.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through the weekend, outside any patchy
late night/early morning mountain valley fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion