Cedar Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

468
FXUS62 KTBW 201700
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
100 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Mostly sunny skies across the Florida Peninsula early this afternoon
with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds. Dry air is evident from
mid-level water vapor imagery and from this mornings 12z sounding.
The 12z TBW sounding measured 1.31 inches of PW. This value is
higher than yesterday morning but this value is still around the
25th percentile for mid-September PW climatology. Due to this, dry
conditions are forecast throughout the remainder of the day. Upper
level flow is quasi-zonal across the Florida Peninsula with a
high to the south and the persistent troughing along the east
coast to the north. At the surface, high pressure is located near
the Mid- Atlantic with continue northeasterly flow at the surface.
Highs today will climb into the low 90s for most locations. With
the dry airmass in place, lows will drop down into the upper 60s
to low 70s.
Sunday should be similar to today with drier air in place. However,
PW values will creep up slightly. Regardless, dry conditions will
continue with only a very low chance for an afternoon
shower/storm for Lee and Charlotte counties.
Moisture will be on the rise to start the workweek. A deep trough
will dig southward into the Gulf. Upper level flow will be
southwesterly ahead of this trough with PW values rising to around 2
inches on Monday. Surface dewpoints will also climb into the mid to
upper 70s. Due to these factors, PoPs will increase on Monday with
best chances south of I-4. The upper level trough will move
northeast over the area on Tuesday keeping afternoon PoPs elevated
on Tuesday as well. This trough exits during this timeframe but the
moisture across the region remains elevated throughout much of the
upcoming week. As the trough exits, winds shift around to the west
late in the week. PoPs will be elevated during the afternoon with
best chances inland. Another front looks to approach the area late
in the forecast period but there is still plenty of model
disagreement on the timing and intensity of this surface boundary.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF cycle with winds
generally from the northeast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Northeast winds 15 knots or less will continue over the waters
for the next several days. Each afternoon, winds will turn onshore
near the coast as a weak seabreeze tries to develop. Drier air
will hold over the waters through the weekend limiting rain
chances, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Drier air will hold over the region through the weekend.
However relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical levels each day. Higher dispersions will be
in place for Sunday. Moisture begins to increase early next week
with better chances for afternoon showers/storms throughout the
upcoming workweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  74  93  76 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  92  74  92  74 /  10   0  20  10
GIF  93  73  93  74 /  10   0  10   0
SRQ  92  73  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  92  68  92  70 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  90  75  90  76 /  10  10  10  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion