Cedar River, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

404
FXUS63 KMQT 120736
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
336 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry through Friday, then a period of showers and some storms
tonight into Saturday morning.
- Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s from Friday onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Early morning RAP analysis shows the midlevel ridge axis shifting
over the Upper Midwest and far western Ontario, with surface high
pressure centered over eastern Ontario. Clear to partly cloudy skies
are apparent over the Upper Peninsula, which, when paired with light
winds and plenty of ambient lower-level moisture, has aided in the
development of fog across much of the area. Satellite imagery would
indicated that fog is rather more widespread across the central UP
and more patchy to the west and east, and this is happily supported
by both surface observations and available webcams. Fog has been
dense at times with many spots showing visibility occasionally
falling below a quarter mile, but given that this lower end has been
more hit-and-miss, will continue to handle this with the SPS rather
than a headline.
Fog mixes out after sunrise, but sunny skies to start will quickly
give way to increasing clouds through the daytime hours as a ridge-
riding shortwave, currently over North Dakota, begins to track
through northern Minnesota. In spite of increasing clouds,
temperatures climb higher than in previous days thanks to southerly
flow bringing in a warmer airmass. Expect temperatures to climb from
morning lows in the 40s and 50s to highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Chances for showers and some thunder finally return to the western
UP late in the evening as the aforementioned shortwave moves across
the UP and Lake Superior. This brings a quick round of scattered
showers and storms through the overnight hours, but with only modest
CAPE and shear, no severe storms are expected. Heavy rain shouldn`t
be much of an issue as well given the quick hit and limited forcing;
guidance continues to favor rain totals below a quarter inch for
most, and some embedded totals up to a half inch where any locally
heavier rainfall develops in thunderstorms. Showers and storms
quickly exit eastward into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.
Skies turn sunny into the weekend as ridging recovers behind the
exiting wave. Temperatures starting off in the 50s rebound into the
lower to mid 70s across most of the area, but the interior-western
and south-central UP may reach even higher into the upper 70s.
Expect otherwise quiet weather Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
High pressure continues to dominate the forecast Sunday with another
quiet and sunny day expected. Temperatures will continue to trend
upward, with NBM 75th percentile guidance even indicating the
potential for a few spots to reach 80 degrees across the western
half of the U.P. Little change heading into the early part of next
weak as ensembles show broad agreement on the ridge axis nudging
eastward across northern Ontario, continuing to favor temperatures
in the 70s to around 80 through next Wednesday. Placement of the
ridge continues to indicate the potential for a few embedded
shortwave disturbances to brush the area and bring periods of
showers or thunderstorms during the first half of the week. NBM
maintains a 15-30% chance of precipitation during the first half of
the week as a result.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Patchy dense fog across portions of central and northern Lake
Superior have resulted in VLIFR fog for the adjacent nearshore and
near inland TAF sites, CMX and SAW. High clouds overhead may be
precluding fog development at IWD. Expecting these conditions
through much of the night before burning off come sunrise. Flight
categories any bounce around between VLIFR and IFR before returning
to MVFR/IFR after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Light winds of generally 10-15 kt or less expected through the
period as high pressure remains over the region. May see a short
lived period of 20 kt gusts over the western half of Lake Superior
on Sunday in response to tightening pressure gradient associated
with strengthening low pressure over the northern Plains, but do not
expect Small Craft Advisory criteria to be met at this time. In the
meantime, satellite shows at least some patchy fog and low stratus
over much of the lake, most dense across the far western arm where a
Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through the morning. Fog
diminishes again into the daytime hours. A weak clipper will bring
some light rain and potentially a few thunderstorms to the area
tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     for LSZ162.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...CB/LC
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...CB/LC

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion